The World Trade Organization's Goods Trade Barometer climbed to 102.0 in September, its highest reading since the series began signalling above-trend merchandise trade growth in early 2024. The increase from 101.7 in June suggests the global trade expansion is not merely holding but accelerating, even as the conflict in the Middle East threatens energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

AI hardware demand powers the headline number

The standout component is the electronic components index, which surged to 104.9. That figure reflects sustained capital expenditure on the servers, accelerators and networking gear that underpin large-language-model training and inference. For European equipment makers, particularly in the Netherlands, Germany and Ireland, the cycle has been a rare bright spot in an otherwise sluggish manufacturing environment. ASML, BE Semiconductor and Infineon have all cited AI-related orders as a buffer against weak automotive and industrial demand over the past year.

The export orders index, which the WTO describes as highly predictive, rose to 103.5. That points to continued momentum in the months ahead, assuming no sharp escalation in trade policy or energy disruption. International air freight (102.8) and agricultural raw materials (102.6) also sit comfortably above trend, while automotive products (101.5) barely clear the baseline.

Container shipping remains the outlier

Only one component index sits below 100: container shipping at 99.6. The marginal dip suggests that the post-pandemic logistics boom has fully normalised and that excess vessel capacity delivered over the past two years is still weighing on utilisation rates. For Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg, the implication is clear, throughput volumes may grow, but pricing power remains limited. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have both guided for flat contract rates into 2027.

Middle East conflict effects yet to fully materialise

The WTO notes that trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in second-quarter data once figures become available. The March Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report modelled a high-energy-price scenario that shaved 0.5 percentage points off the baseline 1.9% merchandise trade volume forecast for 2026, bringing it to 1.4%. Since that report, tanker rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope has added ten to fourteen days to Europe-Asia voyages, raising freight costs and inventory holdings for energy-intensive European sectors such as chemicals and steel.

The barometer itself, as a leading indicator, may not yet reflect the full impact. The component indices are constructed from data that typically lags real-time shipping movements by several weeks. The October GTOS update will be the first authoritative assessment of whether the Hormuz effect is tracking the high-energy scenario or something milder.

AI investment could add half a percentage point to trade growth

The March GTOS report quantified something analysts have argued for months: sustained AI investment could contribute an additional 0.5 percentage points to merchandise trade growth. That estimate rests on the import content of data-centre build-out, semiconductors, optical transceivers, power-management chips, specialised cabling, much of which crosses borders multiple times before final assembly. For the EU, which runs a structural deficit in advanced semiconductors but a surplus in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the net effect depends on whether the equipment exports outweigh the chip imports.

European exposure is asymmetric

Germany's automotive-heavy export model sees only marginal benefit from the AI cycle; the automotive products index at 101.5 confirms the sector is barely growing. The Netherlands and Ireland, by contrast, sit at the centre of the semiconductor equipment and data-centre supply chains. French aerospace and Italian industrial machinery fall somewhere in between. The aggregate EU merchandise trade surplus narrowed in the first half of 2026, according to Eurostat, as energy import bills remained elevated while capital goods exports to China slowed.

Policy backdrop remains uncertain

The WTO flags elevated uncertainty surrounding trade policies. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism enters its definitive phase in 2026, the US-China semiconductor restrictions continue to expand, and the EU-China electric vehicle tariff investigation remains unresolved. None of these are captured in the barometer's component indices, which measure physical flows rather than policy risk. The export orders index may already be pricing in some front-loading ahead of potential tariff changes.

What the October update will test

The next GTOS report, due in October, will provide the first comprehensive view of second-quarter trade volumes including the Hormuz disruption. It will also revise the 2026 and 2027 forecasts. The key questions: whether the high-energy-price scenario has materialised, whether the AI investment cycle is broadening beyond hyperscalers into enterprise adoption, and whether container shipping utilisation has troughed. For European trade ministers meeting in Brussels next month, the answers will shape the negotiating mandate for the WTO's thirteenth ministerial conference.

Organisations

World Trade Organization