European Parliament delays US trade deal vote after Trump tariff surprise

The European Parliament has put the Turnberry Deal, its recently negotiated trade agreement with the United States, on ice after President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 15% tariff on all imports over the weekend, effective immediately. The move came days after the US Supreme Court struck down the legal authority underpinning Trump's previous global tariff policy, prompting the president to pivot to a different statutory framework that permits a maximum 15% levy for up to 150 days without congressional approval.

Bernd Lange, chair of the Parliament's Committee on International Trade, convened an emergency meeting on Monday and declared legislative work on the agreement suspended. In a statement he described the situation as "pure tariff chaos" and said no one in Brussels or other partner capitals can make sense of the new American position. The committee's decision reflects a broader European alarm: the European Commission insisted a deal is a deal and expected Washington to honour its commitments, while Paris and Berlin signalled a harder line.

Trump's tariff pivot after Supreme Court defeat

The sequence of events began on Friday 20 February when the US Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not authorise the global tariffs Trump had imposed last spring. By Saturday the president had announced a new universal 10% levy under a different legal framework, only to raise it to 15%, the statutory ceiling for a 150-day period, in a Truth Social post that same evening. The duties took effect immediately, catching allies and trading partners off guard.

Lange noted that the Supreme Court ruling was "clear and unequivocal" and that its implications could not be ignored. He added that a key instrument used on the US side to negotiate and implement the Turnberry Deal was no longer available, making business as usual impossible. The committee's statement said the situation was "more uncertain than ever" and ran counter to the stability and predictability the agreement was designed to deliver.

European Parliament hits pause on Turnberry Deal

The Turnberry Deal, concluded last summer after months of negotiation, had been scheduled for a parliamentary vote this week. That vote is now postponed indefinitely. The agreement covers most EU exports to the United States at a 15% duty rate, with exclusions for pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, fertilisers and certain agricultural products. Auto and steel tariffs remain at their existing levels. On paper the new 15% universal rate matches the deal's headline figure for EU goods, but the legal basis has shifted and the exemptions' status is unclear.

Lange's social media posts on Sunday framed the core problem: whether the new tariffs constitute a breach of the deal, and whether the United States will or even can adhere to it. He demanded clarity and legal certainty before any further steps. The Commission's Sunday statement was shorter but firmer: "a deal is a deal" and the EU stands by its commitments. A Commission spokesperson declined to elaborate on potential countermeasures when asked by this publication.

Diverging reactions across European capitals

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told ARD there would be "a very clear European position" before his early March visit to the White House, but he deferred to the Commission in Brussels on the substance of the response. French Trade Minister Nicolas Forissier was more direct, telling the Financial Times that EU members should not "be naive" and must adopt a united approach against Washington's new trade position. The contrast reflects a familiar tension: Berlin prefers to keep diplomatic channels open, while Paris has long advocated a more muscular EU trade defence.

The United Kingdom, which secured a separate deal with a baseline 10% tariff rate, is also seeking clarity. A UK government spokesperson said at the weekend that London expected its privileged trading position to continue and would work with the administration to understand the ruling's effect. That deal had given British exporters a competitive edge over EU rivals; the new universal 15% rate erases that advantage unless the UK agreement is explicitly upheld.

The numbers behind the asymmetry

Analysis from the Swiss-based trade watchdog Global Trade Alert quantifies the uneven impact. On a trade-weighted basis, the United Kingdom faces a 2.1 percentage point increase in its average tariff rate, while the European Union sees a 0.8 point rise. In contrast, Brazil's rate falls 13.6 points and China's drops 7.1 points. The disparity arises because countries that already faced high US tariffs benefit from the new ceiling, while those with low existing rates, including close allies, see their market access worsen.

Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told CNBC on Monday that the administration does not appear to consider second- or third-order effects. Countries that moved early to secure advantageous deals when Trump first floated levies are now being penalised, she said. The UK's 2.1 point increase is the sharpest among major advanced economies, a fact that will complicate London's efforts to maintain its post-Brexit trade narrative.

Lagarde warns of trans-Atlantic disruption

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, appeared on CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday and warned that the trans-Atlantic business relationship could suffer. She compared the situation to driving: "You want to know the rules of the road before you get in the car. It's the same with trade." If the new policy shakes the equilibrium traders had grown used to, she said, it will bring disruptions for certain. European markets traded lower on Monday, reflecting investor jitters over the latest escalation.

Lagarde's intervention is notable because the ECB rarely comments on specific trade policy moves. Her public warning signals that the central bank sees the uncertainty as a macroeconomic risk, not merely a sectoral one. The euro area's export-dependent manufacturers, particularly in Germany and Italy, are vulnerable to any sustained disruption in US demand or supply chains.

What the Turnberry Deal actually covers

The Turnberry Deal, named after the Scottish resort where final talks were held, was never a comprehensive free trade agreement. It locked in a 15% most-favoured-nation tariff on most EU industrial goods, preserved existing auto and steel tariffs, and carved out permanent exemptions for pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, fertilisers and a defined list of agricultural products. Services, digital trade and public procurement were largely excluded. The agreement also established a joint committee to review implementation annually.

Crucially, the US side relied on the IEEPA authority, now invalidated by the Supreme Court, to implement the tariff reductions and exemptions. That legal foundation has evaporated. Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, insisted on Sunday that the president's trade policy has not changed fundamentally and that the deals still stand. He said he was in active conversations with partners and had not heard anyone declare the deal off. But his reassurance rests on a legal framework the Supreme Court has rejected.

Next steps and the March deadline