ECB's Demarco signals rate hikes likely as oil shock persists
Bank of Malta governor breaks with dovish colleagues to warn that even a ceasefire may not lower energy prices enough to avoid tightening at June meeting.
Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
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Governor of the Bank of France, Banque de France
Bank of Malta governor breaks with dovish colleagues to warn that even a ceasefire may not lower energy prices enough to avoid tightening at June meeting.
With Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella favoured to win next year's presidential election, Berlin, Brussels and Kyiv are accelerating nuclear, budget and enlargement agreements that a National Rally government could unpick.
With inflation at 1.7% and the euro up 14% in a year, the central bank faces competing pressures that could force a shift sooner than markets expect.
Central bank officials are debating whether to make euro funding more widely available to foreign counterparts, a move that would mirror China's swap-line network but faces collateral constraints and Governing Council scepticism.
With Christine Lagarde due to step down in 2027, Madrid and Berlin, the eurozone's fourth and largest economies, are quietly manoeuvring for the first time to lead the central bank, while a Dutch dark horse lurks.
The European Central Bank kept its key rate unchanged for a third meeting, citing resilient growth and inflation near target, while warning that trade tensions and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook.
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