Babiš wins Czech election but faces long road to government

Andrej Babiš and his ANO movement secured a decisive victory in the Czech parliamentary election on 4 October, capturing 35 percent of the vote with 99.9 percent of ballots counted. That is the highest percentage ever recorded by a single party in a Czech lower-house election. Yet the result does not translate into a governing majority. The 200-seat Chamber of Deputies requires 101 votes for a government to survive a confidence motion, and every other parliamentary party has publicly ruled out joining a coalition led by Babiš.

A historic win without a majority

ANO's 35 percent leaves it well ahead of the outgoing centre-right Spolu (Together) coalition, which fell to 23 percent under Prime Minister Petr Fiala. The gap of twelve points is substantial, but the arithmetic is unforgiving. Without a majority, Babiš must either persuade other parties to tolerate a minority government or negotiate formal support agreements. On election night he declared his intention to pursue a single-party minority cabinet backed by the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party and the right-wing populist Motorists for Themselves. Together those two forces hold enough seats to push a Babiš government over the 101-vote threshold, but both come with political baggage that complicates any European-facing agenda.

Mainstream parties close the door

The refusal of Spolu, the liberal Pirates and Mayors alliance, and the centre-left Social Democrats to negotiate with ANO is not new. During the campaign each signed a pledge to exclude Babiš from government, citing his ongoing legal troubles and the conflict of interest posed by his Agrofert conglomerate. That unity means the only viable parliamentary partners for ANO sit to its right. Petr Kaniok, a political scientist at Masaryk University in Brno, told reporters the talks would be neither simple nor quick. He estimated the formation process could stretch over several months, a timeline that would leave the Czech Republic in a prolonged caretaker period while the European Council prepares its next strategic agenda and the EU budget review enters a critical phase.

Far right and far left underperform

The most striking feature of the result may be what did not happen. The eurosceptic SPD, which polls had placed around 13 percent, finished with roughly 8 percent. The far-left Stačilo! coalition, which campaigned on withdrawing from both NATO and the European Union and cultivating closer ties with Russia, failed to clear the 5 percent threshold and will have no deputies in the new parliament. Anna Shavit, a political marketing expert who previously worked on Babiš campaigns, described the outcome as good news for European stability. She argued that Babiš can now form a government without being forced into agreements that would be explicitly anti-European. Kaniok echoed that assessment, noting that the reduced weight of radical parties means any resulting cabinet might adopt a less radical stance on foreign policy than ANO's campaign rhetoric suggested.

President Pavel's constitutional leverage

The next move belongs to President Petr Pavel. Under the Czech constitution the president has discretion over which party leader receives the first mandate to form a government. Tradition favours the winner of the election, and Pavel has announced he will meet all parliamentary parties on 5 October before deciding. He has already set two red lines: he will not appoint ministers who advocate Czech withdrawal from NATO or the EU, and he is consulting lawyers on whether the conflict of interest surrounding Agrofert legally bars him from naming Babiš as prime minister. The first condition is now easier to satisfy given SPD's weak showing and Stačilo!'s absence. The second remains live.

Czech law prohibits public officials from controlling a business that creates a conflict with their governing function. Babiš placed Agrofert into trust funds in 2017 to comply with the law, but critics and the European Commission have argued the arrangement does not eliminate his effective control. In a televised debate before the vote Babiš said he would "solve the conflict of interest" without specifying how. Pavel's legal advisers are examining whether the trust structure meets the constitutional standard. If they conclude it does not, the president could refuse to appoint Babiš even if he commands a parliamentary majority, a scenario without clear precedent in Czech post-communist history.

Ukraine policy and European anxiety

Babiš campaigned on reducing Czech military aid to Ukraine and explicitly opposed Ukrainian EU membership. He criticised the Prague-led ammunition initiative that has delivered millions of artillery rounds to Kyiv and pledged to cancel it, arguing NATO should run such schemes instead. Kaniok characterised ANO as not openly pro-Russian but "much more inclined toward Russia, much less toward Ukraine." That positioning has alarmed officials in Brussels and other European capitals, who fear Babiš could join Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico as a disruptive voice inside the European Council. Babiš rejects the comparison. At his post-election press conference he insisted ANO is "clearly pro-European and pro-NATO" and said his priority is European citizens, energy prices and the migration pact. Orbán, a co-founder with Babiš of the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, congratulated him on X, calling the victory "a big step for the Czech Republic, good news for Europe."

The Stork's Nest fraud case

While the political negotiations unfold, a criminal verdict looms. The Prague District Court is due to rule on whether Babiš defrauded the EU of €2 million by carving out the "Stork's Nest" farm from Agrofert to make it appear eligible for subsidies reserved for medium-sized enterprises. A lower court originally acquitted him, but the Prague High Court overturned that acquittal in June 2025 and ordered a retrial. Unless new evidence emerges, the district court is bound by the high court's legal reasoning. A conviction would not automatically remove Babiš from parliament, he would retain immunity unless the Chamber of Deputies votes to lift it, but it would dramatically increase political pressure on any party considering support for his government.

What the numbers mean for the next parliament

The final seat distribution gives ANO approximately 85 to 90 deputies, Spolu around 55, SPD roughly 20, Motorists for Themselves about 15, and the Pirates and Mayors alliance and Social Democrats splitting the remainder. No combination excluding ANO reaches 101 seats, which means Babiš remains the indispensable figure unless the president chooses a different path. A minority ANO cabinet backed by SPD and the Motorists would command a working majority of roughly 120 votes, enough to pass legislation but vulnerable on any issue where the two support parties diverge, notably on NATO commitments and EU budget negotiations.