EU leaders confront Russia sanctions, US tariffs and Gaza divisions at Brussels summit

European Union leaders gathered in Brussels on Thursday for a summit that arrives less than 24 hours after a NATO meeting in Washington where the alliance pledged a substantial increase in defence spending and attempted to smooth over transatlantic tensions with Donald Trump. The European Council agenda is dominated by three interlocking crises: the next phase of economic pressure on Russia, the threat of fresh American tariffs, and a fracture among member states over how to respond to the war in Gaza.

Sanctions fatigue and the oil price cap

The most concrete item on the table is a potential 18th package of sanctions against Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Diplomats have been negotiating for weeks over measures that would tighten enforcement of the G7 price cap on Russian crude, which has largely failed to keep Moscow’s export revenues below the $60 per barrel ceiling. Several member states, particularly those in central and eastern Europe that remain dependent on pipeline oil, have resisted stricter enforcement on the grounds that it could push up energy prices for their own consumers and industries.

The price cap mechanism, agreed in December 2022, relies on Western insurance and shipping services being denied to tankers carrying Russian oil sold above the threshold. In practice, a shadow fleet of older vessels with opaque ownership has circumvented the restriction, allowing Russia to sell the bulk of its crude at market prices. The European Commission has proposed expanding the list of sanctioned tankers and tightening the attestation process for price compliance, but unanimity is required and Hungary has repeatedly used its veto to water down energy-related measures.

Trump’s tariff threat hangs over trade agenda

The shadow of the American president looms larger than any agenda item. On Wednesday, Trump criticised Spain for failing to meet the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defence and suggested that further tariffs on European goods could follow. The EU negotiates trade policy as a single bloc, but the US administration has shown a willingness to target individual member states, a tactic designed to fracture unity. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, responded by accusing Trump of launching a trade war against long-standing allies, a formulation that underscores how far the transatlantic relationship has drifted from the coordination of the Biden years.

The European Commission has prepared a list of retaliatory measures should Trump impose the 10% baseline tariff he has floated on all imports, with higher rates for automobiles. The calculus in Brussels is complicated by the fact that the EU runs a goods trade surplus with the United States of roughly €150 billion annually, making it a target for an administration that views bilateral deficits as evidence of unfairness. Officials privately acknowledge that any retaliation would hurt European exporters, particularly in Germany’s automotive sector, but argue that failing to respond would invite further escalation.

Zelenskyy joins by video after Washington visit

Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the leaders by videoconference after meeting Trump at the White House on Wednesday. The Ukrainian president’s presence at the NATO summit was notable for its downgrade: Ukraine was moved from a central agenda item to a side event, reflecting a shift in American priorities. For the EU, however, Russia’s war remains the paramount security concern. The summit will reaffirm financial and military support, but the mood has darkened as US aid packages stall in Congress and European defence industrial capacity struggles to meet Kyiv’s ammunition needs.

The European Peace Facility, the off-budget mechanism that reimburses member states for weapons deliveries to Ukraine, has been depleted faster than anticipated. A proposal to top it up by €5 billion over the next two years is stuck in negotiations over burden-sharing, with larger economies arguing that contributions should reflect GDP while smaller states insist on a per capita formula. The outcome will affect the credibility of EU commitments made at previous summits.

Sanchez breaks taboo on Gaza terminology

The most politically charged moment before the summit came from Pedro Sanchez, who became the first sitting EU head of government to describe Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as a genocide. Speaking to reporters in Brussels, the Spanish prime minister cited a recent human rights report by the European External Action Service, the EU’s diplomatic corps, which found “indications” that Israel was breaching its human rights obligations under the EU-Israel Association Agreement, the legal basis for preferential trade relations.

The report, which has not been published in full but was leaked to several media outlets, points to the blockade of humanitarian aid, the high civilian casualty toll, attacks on journalists, and the scale of displacement and infrastructure destruction. Sanchez called for an immediate suspension of the association agreement, a step that would require unanimity among the 27 and would effectively freeze the upgrade of trade ties that the Commission has been negotiating. Ireland and Belgium have signalled support for a review; Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic have opposed any move that could be construed as prejudging legal proceedings at the International Court of Justice.

Internal fractures on Israel policy deepen

The division over Gaza is not new, but it has sharpened since the International Criminal Court prosecutor sought arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders in May. The EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, Kaja Kallas, has struggled to maintain a common line. Her predecessors, Josep Borrell and Catherine Ashton, faced similar deadlocks, but the current moment is complicated by the fact that several member states, including Germany and the Netherlands, have intervened as third parties in the ICJ case brought by South Africa, arguing against a finding of genocide. That legal positioning makes a political declaration of genocide by the European Council virtually impossible.

Meanwhile, the EU continues to push for a diplomatic track with Iran over its nuclear programme. The JCPOA revival talks have been dormant since 2022, but the European trio, France, Germany and the UK, have kept a channel open through the EEAS. The summit conclusions are expected to reiterate support for a negotiated solution while condemning Iran’s uranium enrichment beyond civilian needs and its supply of drones to Russia. The linkage between the two theatres, Iran’s role in both the Middle East and the Ukraine war, is one of the few areas where member states broadly agree.

Climate versus defence: von der Leyen under pressure

A quieter but consequential fight is playing out over the Commission’s strategic priorities. Left-leaning parties in the European Parliament, notably the Greens and the Left group, have accused Ursula von der Leyen of abandoning the European Green Deal in favour of a militarised industrial policy. The Commission’s recent defence white paper proposes €800 billion in joint procurement and capacity-building over the next decade, funded partly by loosening fiscal rules and repurposing cohesion funds. Critics argue that the same urgency is not being applied to the 2030 climate targets, which are slipping out of reach.

Von der Leyen’s defenders point out that the geopolitical environment has changed fundamentally since the Green Deal was launched in 2019. The war in Ukraine, the energy shock of 2022, and the unpredictability of US security guarantees have forced a reordering. But the political cost is real: the Commission president’s reappointment for a second term relied on a fragile coalition that includes Greens MEPs who may withhold support for key legislative files if they perceive a systematic downgrading of climate ambition.

A strategic agenda for the next four months

The summit will conclude with a set of conclusions that functions as a political work programme for the European Council until the next scheduled meeting in October. The document is negotiated line by line by sherpas, senior diplomats, in the weeks leading up to the summit, and its language is parsed for shifts in emphasis. This year’s text is expected to include language on enlargement, with Montenegro’s accession negotiations advancing and a decision on opening talks with Albania and North Macedonia pending. It will also address the EU’s competitiveness agenda, responding to a report by former ECB president Mario Draghi that warned of a productivity gap with the United States and China.