Poland targets Europe's largest army as Tusk warns of Russian threat

Poland's prime minister used the country's Army Day celebrations on 15 August to declare that the Polish armed forces will soon become the largest in Europe, a milestone reached after a sustained expansion launched in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Speaking at a naval parade in Gdynia, Donald Tusk said the build-up had produced a force that would "determine the fate of the region with its modernity and sheer numbers, and the entire world appreciates this, especially our allies."

The numbers support the claim. Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed on the same day that active-duty personnel now stand at 220,000, up from roughly 100,000 in 2014 and 216,000 at the end of 2025. The government's target is 300,000 regular soldiers backed by a further 200,000 reservists. If achieved, the active component alone would surpass the French and British armies, leaving only the United States and Turkey larger within NATO.

A decade of deliberate growth

The expansion did not begin with the 2022 invasion. Successive governments in Warsaw have treated defence spending as a structural priority since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. Poland now spends more than 4% of GDP on defence, the highest share in the alliance, and has placed orders for American Abrams tanks, HIMARS rocket systems, South Korean K2 tanks and K9 howitzers, and domestic programmes such as the Borsuk infantry fighting vehicle. The parade in Warsaw displayed a record 300 armoured vehicles and approximately 2,000 soldiers, a visual summary of that procurement drive.

Recruitment has kept pace with equipment. The creation of the Territorial Defence Forces in 2017 added a volunteer reserve component that now numbers tens of thousands. Conscription was effectively suspended in 2008 but the government has introduced a new "voluntary basic military service" scheme that offers a paid year-long contract with a pathway to professional service. The defence ministry says the pipeline is delivering enough volunteers to sustain the growth trajectory toward the 300,000 target.

Tusk confronts the domestic far right

Tusk's speeches went beyond hardware. He used the platform to attack what he called "those forces, those political parties, those politicians who want to convince Poland and Poles that our main problem is Europe, that Ukraine is our enemy, that the European Union is unnecessary, and Germany is our greatest enemy." The remarks were aimed at the Confederation alliance and elements of the former ruling Law and Justice party, both of which have amplified narratives questioning aid to Ukraine and portraying Brussels and Berlin as threats to Polish sovereignty.

"And somehow they forget about Russia, the neighbour, the dangerous neighbour, who is waging war just beyond our borders, and sometimes this war even encroaches upon our borders," Tusk said. The reference was concrete. On 30 July a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in the Lublin region, the latest in a series of airspace violations. In September 2025 Polish F-16s shot down Russian drones during a mass aerial assault on Ukraine, the first direct engagement between NATO and Russian forces since the invasion began. The incident triggered Article 4 consultations among allies.

The strategic calculus

For Warsaw, the logic is straightforward: a Ukrainian defeat would place Russian forces on Poland's eastern border, along the Suwalki Gap and the Belarusian frontier. Supporting Kyiv is therefore not altruism but forward defence. "Our Polish-Ukrainian relations can be debated, but no one can doubt that supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia is for our security," Tusk said. "We do it for ourselves, for Poles, and for no one else." This framing has allowed the government to maintain military and humanitarian aid even as diplomatic spats over grain imports and historical memory have flared.

The eastern flank has become the alliance's primary focus. NATO's 2022 Madrid summit designated Poland as the logistical hub for allied reinforcements, and the multinational battlegroup in Orzysz has been expanded to brigade scale. The US V Corps headquarters is now permanently stationed in Poznan. Poland's growing army is expected to assume a larger share of the burden, particularly in air defence and long-range strike, capabilities the alliance currently lacks in sufficient depth.

Equipment gaps and sustainment questions

Personnel numbers are only one side of the equation. The Polish armaments agency has signed contracts worth more than 100 billion zloty since 2022, but delivery schedules stretch into the 2030s. The first 116 Abrams M1A2 SEPv3 tanks arrived in 2024; the remaining 144 are due by 2026. HIMARS launchers are in service but the deeper magazine of precision-guided rockets depends on US production lines already stretched by Ukrainian demand. South Korean deliveries have been faster: 180 K2 tanks and 212 K9 howitzers are contracted, with the first batches already in Polish hands.

Maintenance and training infrastructure has not expanded at the same rate. The army's training grounds at Drawsko Pomorskie and Nowa Deba are operating at capacity. The non-commissioned officer corps, hollowed out by years of professionalisation without replacement, is a bottleneck. The defence ministry has opened new NCO schools and shortened courses, but experienced leaders cannot be manufactured in months. Attrition among newly recruited specialists, particularly in cyber, electronic warfare and air defence, is a concern the general staff acknowledges privately.

Reserves and societal resilience

The 200,000 reserve target rests on the Territorial Defence Forces (WOT) and a reformed mobilization system. The WOT, currently around 40,000 strong, is organised into light infantry battalions in every county, designed for hybrid threats and rear-area security. Critics argue they lack the heavy weapons and mobility to contest a mechanised incursion. The ministry counters that their role is to free regular units for the main battle. A new law on national defence, passed in 2024, streamlines call-up procedures and obliges large employers to release reservists for training, but its first full-scale exercise is not scheduled until 2027.

Civil defence has been revived after decades of neglect. Shelter inventories have been updated, siren networks tested, and a government app now provides alerting and guidance. The effort mirrors similar moves in the Baltic states and Finland, reflecting a shared assessment that the threshold for Russian aggression against NATO territory has lowered.

The political sustainability of the build-up

Tusk's coalition holds a comfortable parliamentary majority, but the opposition has made defence spending a campaign issue for the 2027 presidential election. Confederation proposes redirecting funds to tax cuts and argues that the army's expansion fuels a "militarised state." Law and Justice, while historically hawkish, accuses the government of neglecting the defence industry's Polish content in favour of foreign purchases. Both narratives find audiences in rural constituencies where the economic benefits of defence contracts are less visible.

The government's response has been to frame the army as a national project transcending party lines. Army Day itself, commemorating the 1920 Battle of Warsaw, when Polish forces halted the Red Army, was chosen deliberately. Tusk invoked the anniversary: "We are the heirs of that victory." The symbolism is intended to anchor the current expansion in a historical continuum that predates today's polarised politics.