US offers NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine at Berlin talks

The United States has put NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine on the table for the first time, marking a potential shift in the diplomatic architecture around the war. Envoys dispatched by Donald Trump made the offer during talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Berlin on Monday, day 1,392 of Russia's full-scale invasion. The proposal, described by European leaders as unprecedented, would commit Washington to a military response should Russia attack Ukraine again after any ceasefire or settlement.

The Berlin talks and Trump's direct involvement

Trump called into a dinner involving the principal negotiators in Berlin from the White House, telling reporters afterwards: "We're trying to get it done. We had numerous conversations with President Putin of Russia, and I think we're closer now than we have been ever and we'll see what we can do." The US president's personal engagement signals a desire to force momentum before his inauguration, though his envoys warned the security guarantee offer would not remain on the table indefinitely. Zelenskyy said after the meeting he would ask Washington to impose fresh sanctions and supply long-range weapons if Moscow rejects the proposals under discussion. He also indicated Kyiv would support a Christmas ceasefire, particularly on energy infrastructure strikes.

European leaders describe a new atmosphere

The mood among European participants was notably different from previous summits. Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, said: "For the first time since the war began, the possibility of a ceasefire is conceivable." Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, went further, telling reporters on his departure from Berlin that he had "the feeling for the first time … that everyone was behaving like allies from one camp." Tusk disclosed that American negotiators had explicitly committed to security guarantees backed by a credible military response, removing ambiguity that has characterised previous US positions. Ulf Kristersson, Sweden's prime minister, acknowledged the guarantees had become "clearer and more credible" but cautioned that "many difficult questions remain, not least about territories and whether Russia wants peace at all."

Russia's position and the intelligence assessment

Moscow has not publicly responded to the Berlin proposals. The Kremlin has consistently demanded recognition of its territorial gains, including Crimea and four partially occupied oblasts, as a precondition for any settlement. Blaise Metreweli, in her first public speech as chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), said Putin is "dragging out negotiations" and remains determined to "subjugate Ukraine and harass NATO members." She described Russian tactics as testing the West with actions that fall "just below the threshold of war." This assessment aligns with the scepticism expressed by Kristersson and suggests the Berlin optimism may not survive contact with Russian decision-making.

Ukraine demonstrates expanded strike capability

While diplomats talked in Berlin, Ukraine's security service (SBU) announced a naval milestone: underwater "Sea Baby" drones had struck and disabled a Russian Kilo-class attack submarine in the port of Novorossiysk, the Black Sea Fleet's most important remaining base. A Ukrainian navy spokesperson called the operation "another turning point" in the naval battle. Russia has moved many vessels to Novorossiysk to place them beyond the range of earlier Ukrainian missile and drone strikes; the submarine attack demonstrates that sanctuary no longer exists. The Kilo-class boats carry Kalibr cruise missiles used extensively against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Financial warfare intensifies on two fronts

The economic dimension of the conflict sharpened on Monday. Russia's central bank filed a claim for 18 trillion roubles (approximately $230 billion) against Euroclear, the Brussels-based securities depository holding the bulk of the €210 billion in frozen Russian central bank reserves. The move is a warning shot against EU plans to use the windfall profits from those assets, or the principal itself, to fund a loan for Ukraine's defence and budgetary needs. EU leaders are expected to decide this week whether to proceed with the loan mechanism, which would provide Kyiv with predictable financing through 2025 and beyond. Separately, the EU adopted its nineteenth sanctions package, targeting two traders, Murtaza Lakhani and Etibar Eyyub, accused of helping Moscow circumvent the G7 price cap on crude exports. Despite nineteen rounds of measures, Russia continues to sell millions of barrels daily to India and China, albeit at discounts to global benchmarks.

Cyber disruption hits German parliament during talks

Germany's Bundestag suffered a major email outage lasting more than four hours on Monday, which officials suspect was a cyber-attack timed to coincide with the high-stakes Berlin negotiations. Members of parliament were unable to access their accounts throughout the period. The incident underscores the hybrid dimension of the conflict: Russian intelligence services have repeatedly targeted German institutions, including the 2015 breach of the Bundestag's internal network attributed to the GRU's APT28 group. The timing, during talks attended by US, Ukrainian and European principals, suggests either deliberate disruption or opportunistic exploitation of heightened network activity.

The Hague conference and the claims commission

European leaders and Zelenskyy will meet in The Hague on Tuesday to launch an international claims commission under the auspices of the Council of Europe. The one-day conference, co-hosted by the Netherlands and the 46-member Council, aims to establish a mechanism for compensating Ukraine for hundreds of billions of dollars in documented damage from Russian attacks and alleged war crimes. Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief, is expected to attend. The commission would operate alongside the Register of Damage created in 2023, moving from documentation toward actual adjudication and eventual payment, a process that could eventually tap frozen Russian assets if legal and political hurdles are cleared.