Solar and wind overtake fossil fuels in EU electricity for first time

Solar and wind power supplied more electricity than coal and gas across the European Union in 2025, the first time renewables have led the generation mix since comparable records began. The two sources combined for 30% of output, nudging past fossil fuels at 29%, according to the European Electricity Review published by the energy think tank Ember. When hydroelectricity and biomass are added, the renewable share rises to 48%, while nuclear, emissions-free but not classified as renewable, contributed a further 23%. The crossover marks a structural shift in the bloc's power system, one that has been building for years but accelerated sharply after Russia's invasion of Ukraine cut pipeline gas supplies to Europe.

How the numbers stack up

The 30% figure for solar and wind is not a sudden jump but the culmination of roughly 20% annual growth in solar capacity for four consecutive years. Wind has expanded more slowly but steadily. Ember's analysis shows that until recently, overall electricity demand growth was strong enough that fossil generation could still rise in absolute terms even as renewables gained share. That dynamic changed in 2025: for the first time, solar and wind growth outpaced total demand growth, forcing coal and gas plants to run less often. The International Energy Agency notes that solar and wind have posted record annual additions globally for 23 years, but the EU is among the first major economies where that growth has begun to actively displace fossil fuels rather than merely meet new demand.

National contributions vary widely. Germany, Spain and the Netherlands have led solar deployment; Denmark, Ireland and Portugal lead on wind. France's heavy nuclear base means its fossil share was already low. Poland and the Czech Republic remain reliant on coal, though both have seen renewable shares climb. The aggregate EU figure masks these divergences, but the direction of travel is now consistent across almost every member state. Ember reports solar growth in 14 of the 27 countries in 2025 alone.

Rooftop solar: the quiet engine

Much of Europe's solar surge has come not from utility-scale farms but from panels on residential and commercial roofs. Ember estimates that rooftop photovoltaics could technically cover 40% of the EU's electricity needs if fully exploited. That potential remains largely untapped: installation rates differ dramatically between countries with supportive net-metering schemes and those where grid connection delays or unfavourable tariffs deter households. Germany's feed-in tariff legacy and the Netherlands' net-metering regime have driven mass adoption; in contrast, Spain only recently removed a "sun tax" that penalised self-consumption. The distributed nature of rooftop solar also eases transmission constraints, since generation sits close to demand, but it complicates grid management when thousands of small producers export simultaneously on sunny afternoons.

Greece's curtailment crisis

The Greek experience illustrates the next bottleneck. Installed solar capacity jumped from 9.5 GW in 2024 to 12 GW in 2025, a 25% increase in a single year. But the grid could not absorb the midday peak. Stelios Loumakis, president of the Association of Photovoltaic Energy Producers in Greece, said a quarter of all solar generation was curtailed, disconnected from the network, in 2025. He expects that figure to reach 40% in 2026. "We're furiously adding capacity while producers lose income," he said. "There is now so much capacity being added that a lot of these investors are going to go bankrupt. The only way to avoid that is to install a lot of electricity storage, but what is currently under construction is still much too little."

Greece is not alone. Spain, Italy and parts of Germany have reported rising curtailment rates. The European Commission's latest electricity market design reform, adopted in 2024, aims to incentivise flexibility through capacity mechanisms and longer intraday trading windows, but physical storage, batteries, pumped hydro, and eventually green hydrogen, remains far behind deployment targets. The EU's 2030 energy storage target of 200 GW looks ambitious against a current installed base of roughly 60 GW, most of it pumped hydro built decades ago. Battery projects face permitting delays, supply chain constraints for critical minerals, and revenue uncertainty in markets not yet designed to value flexibility.

Global context: China, India and the US divergence

The EU's milestone coincides with a notable shift in the world's two largest coal consumers. China's coal-fired generation fell by 1% in 2025, the first annual decline in a decade, while India's coal growth slowed sharply as renewable additions accelerated. Both countries still rely on coal for more than half their electricity, but the peak may be in sight. By contrast, the United States moved in the opposite direction. Preliminary data from the Rhodium Group shows US emissions rose 2.4% in 2025 after two years of declines, driven by a rebound in coal-fired generation. The Trump administration has pledged to keep coal plants open, cancelled offshore wind and onshore solar licences, and moved to claw back $24 billion in climate subsidies approved under the Inflation Reduction Act. Wind and solar supplied just 17% of US electricity in 2024, less than half the EU share.

Federal courts have blocked some of the administration's reversals. Judges ordered the resumption of construction on large offshore wind projects off New York and Virginia in early 2026, and litigation continues over the legality of pausing permit approvals. The outcome will shape whether the US can rejoin the global decarbonisation trajectory or cede clean technology leadership to China and Europe. Legal scholars argue that the durability of the US transition now depends as much on judicial interpretation of administrative law as on congressional action.

Why storage and grids determine the next phase

The EU's 2025 milestone is real, but it is also a snapshot of a system in transition. The next phase, pushing renewables from 30% to 50%, 60%, and beyond, requires solving the mismatch between when the sun shines and when demand peaks. That means storage, demand-side response, cross-border interconnection, and market designs that reward flexibility. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) estimates the EU needs at least 150 GW of new cross-border capacity by 2030 to integrate renewable output efficiently. Current projects cover roughly half that. Meanwhile, battery deployment in Europe grew 90% year-on-year in 2025 but from a low base of 15 GW. Most projects are two-to-four-hour duration; longer-duration storage remains experimental.

Investment risk and policy response

Loumakis's bankruptcy warning is already visible in project finance. European solar developers report rising difficulty securing debt for projects in markets with high curtailment risk. Power purchase agreement (PPA) prices have fallen in Spain and Greece as buyers factor in curtailment losses. The EU's Net-Zero Industry Act, which entered force in 2025, aims to simplify permitting for strategic clean tech manufacturing and deployment, but it does not directly address storage revenue stacking or grid queue reform. National recovery plans still allocate billions to grid reinforcement, yet permitting for new lines averages four to seven years. The European Investment Bank has signalled it will prioritise storage and grid projects in its 2026-2027 lending cycle, but private capital must cover the bulk of the estimated €600 billion needed by 2030.

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