Reform UK proposes welfare ban for EU citizens with settled status
Party's £50bn savings plan would require renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement and could strip rights from over 700,000 EU nationals on Universal Credit
Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
Central Europe Correspondent
Marek Jankowski reports on politics in central and eastern Europe, with a focus on how national elections change a member state's behaviour inside the Council. He has covered every Polish parliamentary election since 2011 and reads four of the region's languages.
Party's £50bn savings plan would require renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement and could strip rights from over 700,000 EU nationals on Universal Credit
The Pact on Migration and Asylum took effect in June alongside a tougher returns law, yet no mechanism exists to measure when migration flows exceed a member state's ability to integrate newcomers.
A joint letter warns the regulation threatens supply security as Brussels prepares to enforce methane-intensity thresholds on fossil fuel imports from 2027, with penalties reaching 20% of turnover by 2030.
Hamish Falconer, appointed last month as the prime minister's chief EU negotiator, says Britain wants a more ambitious partnership but rules out single market or customs union membership.
Conservative politicians discuss replacing Friedrich Merz after one year as AfD leads national polls and threatens to win state power for the first time in September.
Centre-left MEP and likely 2027 presidential candidate Raphaël Glucksmann says the Secretariat-General for National Defence and Security attributed a coordinated operation to Russian military intelligence, weeks before he is expected to declare his candidacy.
The European Commission says it followed procedure in selecting Tanja Fajon as EU Special Representative for the Sahel, but the nomination was withdrawn after Slovenia's new government objected and filed criminal charges against the former foreign minister.
With parliament in deadlock and the president under pressure, the Alliance for the Union of Romanians leads polls at 36 percent while Brussels watches a NATO ally on Ukraine's border.
German chancellor says foreign financing of political parties is illegal as State Department launches programme framed around 'civilizational heritage' and 'lawfare'
Coordinated measures target nine individuals and four entities linked to the FSB's 16th Center, while Britain hits 24 people and entities connected to GRU Unit 29155 and its front company Impuls.
A French appeals court rules Tuesday on whether the National Rally leader's embezzlement conviction and five-year ban on public office will stand, potentially ending her fourth bid for the Élysée.
Analysis argues the bloc's diminishing global influence stems from national capitals' unwillingness to take hard political choices rather than institutional design flaws.
Chancellor Merz hosts five-nation dinner as Franco-German fighter project collapses and Trump pressures allies over Iran and troop levels
Former NATO chief argues Ukraine is now Europe's strongest military power and should be integrated into a new security architecture led by France and Britain, ahead of a critical NATO summit in Ankara.
Brussels summit will test whether France and Germany can agree on sector-specific tariffs and a European version of the US Section 301 tool as the goods deficit with China reaches €360 billion.
The Pact on Migration and Asylum enters force on Friday, introducing border screenings, a revamped Eurodac database and a solidarity mechanism that has already fractured over Hungary and Slovakia's refusal to participate.
New asylum rules allowing offshore processing and child detention become operational on 12 June while the Commission readies first formal meeting with Afghan authorities since 2021.
Civil Contract takes roughly 54 percent in early counts, defeating pro-Russian alliance led by oligarch Samvel Karapetyan in first election since Nagorno-Karabakh loss.
Parliamentary election on 7 June becomes de facto referendum on geopolitical orientation, with Pashinyan's Civil Contract leading polls but facing Russian economic retaliation and a fragmented pro-Moscow opposition.
May flash estimate exceeds ECB target by more than a percentage point, locking in expectations of a rate hike at next week's meeting while Germany, France and southern members diverge sharply.
Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Lithuania have signed a joint paper urging the Commission to adopt faster safeguards, broader anti-circumvention powers and a new resilience instrument before Friday's China policy debate.
Voters go to the polls on Sunday with polls showing the traditional DISY and AKEL parties falling to around 20% each, while far-right ELAM and new anti-establishment movements surge.
Mārtiņš Kazāks says energy shock from Strait of Hormuz closure pushes euro area between baseline and adverse scenarios, while dismissing hopes that Russian economic pain will end Ukraine war.
Council of Europe delegation notes incidents at polling stations but says problem not widespread; Electoral Commission cites 90% awareness rate from May 2025
The European Central Bank left its deposit facility rate unchanged despite April inflation surging to 3% and the Iran war driving energy costs higher, signalling a June hike remains possible but not guaranteed.
The European Parliament has voted to raise the proposed 2028-2035 spending ceiling above the Commission's €1.76 trillion, but Germany and the Netherlands are pushing back while net recipients demand more. Negotiations resume in June with concrete figures.
Hungary's incoming prime minister meets von der Leyen and Costa in Brussels to restart frozen funding and reset relations after Orban's 16-year rule ended in April landslide.
Brussels says member states add costly requirements when transposing EU laws, then blame the Commission for the resulting red tape. The executive wants to cut administrative burdens by 25 percent and save €37.7 billion annually by 2029.
European Commission officials landed in Budapest on Friday for reset talks with Hungary's incoming government, weeks before Péter Magyar takes office, with €17bn in frozen funds and a €90bn Ukraine loan hanging in the balance.
German growth forecasts halved to 0.6% while French electricity costs a fifth of Germany's, forcing a reckoning over energy strategy that abandoned nuclear after Fukushima.
Preliminary Eurostat data shows headline inflation breaching the ECB target in March, driven by a 4.9% jump in energy costs after the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Preliminary European Commission data shows the sharpest monthly deterioration since the war began, with employment expectations weakening across retail, services and industry while the ECB warns of stagflation risks.
MEPs voted 389 to 206 to advance legislation allowing rejected asylum seekers to be sent to centres in third countries, with penalties for those who refuse relocation.
Social Democrats remain largest party but lose ground to left and right; Meloni suffers referendum defeat in Italy; Le Pen stalls in French cities; Golob survives Slovenia's closest vote.
Viktor Orban hosted Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders and other European nationalist leaders days before the April 12 election, but only 2,000 supporters attended while his party trails the Tisza opposition by a wide margin amid corruption and Russian influence scandals.
Christine Lagarde says a 'not-too-persistent' overshoot could warrant policy tightening as energy shock pushes 2026 forecast to 2.6% and severe scenario sees 6% peak
European Council meeting in Brussels shifts from competitiveness to crisis management after Strait of Hormuz closure spikes energy costs and Trump's Iran policy forces difficult unity choices.
With polling split and both sides preparing to contest a narrow defeat, the April vote risks triggering a constitutional confrontation that could delay €18 billion in frozen EU funds.
Commission president tells ambassadors unanimity requirement has become a hindrance, cites Hungary's block on €90 billion Ukraine loan as evidence the system cannot deliver
Greens edge CDU by half a percentage point in the first of five 2026 state votes as diesel hits €2.20 a litre and the chancellor pins war responsibility solely on Tehran.
Janez Janša's SDS leads Robert Golob's Freedom Movement by eight points with three weeks to vote, exposing a fragmented centre-left and a healthcare crisis that has become a proxy for state capacity.
Reykjavik considers moving a planned 2027 vote to August as Trump tariffs and Greenland ambitions reshape security calculations for the North Atlantic island.
President Iliana Iotova sets April 19 vote after appointing caretaker government, marking eighth parliamentary election since 2021 as no prime minister has completed a full term
Messages from 2018 and 2019 show Trump's former strategist asked Jeffrey Epstein to bankroll Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini ahead of European elections, while Italian and French politicians demand transparency.
With Viktor Orban trailing in polls before April's vote, Fidesz warns EU diplomats against interference while courting Trump's endorsement, but the US president has already rejected Orban's request for an economic backstop.
D66, CDA and VVD will govern with 66 seats, ten short of a majority, after October election ended PVV-led coalition.
D66, Christian Democrats and VVD agree governing pact but must seek opposition support for every bill in both parliamentary chambers.
Renewables reached 30% of generation in 2025, edging past coal and gas at 29%, but curtailment in Greece signals storage and grid bottlenecks that could stall further progress.
Antonio Jose Seguro leads first round with 31.1% but falls short of majority, setting up 8 February contest against Chega leader Andre Ventura on 23.5%
Péter Magyar's Tisza party leads Fidesz by 12 points as voters prepare to choose a new parliament on 12 April under an electoral system critics say favours the incumbent.
Trust in French institutions has fallen faster than in any other EU country, while Marine Le Pen's legal battle and a fragmented left leave the 2027 contest wide open.
May local elections will measure Reform UK's poll lead and Labour's resilience, while the King's Speech, ECHR negotiations and a high-stakes China trip define Starmer's second year.
The central bank revised 2025 growth to 1.4% and signalled a long pause, but Governing Council members are split on whether the next move is up or down.
The White House document names immigration, birth rates and 'censorship' as threats to civilisation, urging support for patriotic parties across the continent before key votes in Germany, Britain and possibly France.
European Public Prosecutor's Office arrests three suspects including College of Europe head and former EEAS secretary general over alleged manipulation of €2.5 million diplomat training contract
Flash data from Eurostat shows consumer prices accelerating above the 2% target, with services inflation climbing to 3.5% and core holding at 2.4%, complicating the ECB's rate path.
ECB president tells Frankfurt banking congress that dependence on foreign trade and security leaves the bloc exposed to US protectionism and Chinese resource dominance, while internal barriers equal a 100% tariff on services.
President Vjosa Osmani dissolved parliament on Wednesday after parties failed to form a government by the constitutional deadline, setting a vote for 28 December that will be Kosovo's seventh since independence.
European Commission unveils plan to remove bureaucratic and physical barriers to cross-border military transport, targeting 2030 readiness as Russian threat assessments harden
Germany, France, Italy, Poland and the EU's foreign policy chief meet in Berlin to coordinate long-term military aid, hybrid threat response and defence industrial planning as war enters third winter.
A nine-country survey reveals 45 percent dissatisfaction with democratic systems, with only Sweden bucking the trend. Voters cite disinformation, corruption and unaccountable politicians as chief threats.
The European Commission unveiled a package of largely non-binding measures to counter disinformation and election meddling, explicitly naming Russia while avoiding new legal obligations for tech platforms.
Rob Jetten's D66 nearly tripled its seats but Geert Wilders' PVV held its ground in vote share while the hard-right bloc fragmented across three parties, leaving the Netherlands with a familiar parliamentary arithmetic.
Environment ministers approved an 85 percent emissions cut by 2040 with significant reliance on international carbon credits, plus a non-binding 2035 range of 66.25 to 72.5 percent, after all-night talks in Brussels.
The European Central Bank kept its key deposit rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, judging that a modest recovery and sticky services inflation warrant patience despite price growth accelerating to 2.2% in September.
With 27 parties competing and no prospect of a majority, the Netherlands faces months of negotiation after a campaign dominated by housing shortages and migration policy.
Independent progressive candidate backed by left-wing parties defeats Fine Gael's Heather Humphreys in election marked by record spoiled ballots and widespread anger at the centre-right coalition.
Dan Jørgensen says Brussels must act on affordable housing or cede ground to populists, as rents outpace inflation across member states
Five prime ministers in 17 months have exposed the structural fragility of a system built for presidential dominance, not parliamentary compromise.
Andrej Babis's ANO movement won the 3-4 October parliamentary vote, ending Petr Fiala's centre-right coalition after one term dominated by inflation and energy costs.
Andrej Babiš's ANO party leads polls at 29 percent as Czechs vote Friday and Saturday, but coalition arithmetic and a pending fraud verdict complicate his path back to power.
Andrej Babiš's ANO party leads polls before the October vote, raising the prospect of a Eurosceptic coalition that could align Prague with Budapest and Bratislava on migration, climate policy and aid to Ukraine.
A €500bn fund and debt brake reform were supposed to revive the eurozone's largest economy. Economists now say the spending is too slow and too much goes to rising social costs rather than investment.
The ECB president must address her homeland's mounting debt crisis while keeping deposit rates at 2 percent and avoiding any signal of market intervention.
The National Assembly voted 364 to 194 to topple François Bayrou's government, leaving Emmanuel Macron to find a replacement who can survive a fractured parliament and a debt crisis that has pushed borrowing to 114 per cent of GDP.
A year after the former ECB president's report, the European Commission has launched numerous initiatives but national governments have blocked the structural changes he argued were essential.
ECB president says French bond spreads have risen but country does not meet IMF bailout conditions, while warning Trump's attacks on Fed independence threaten global economy
National Rally leader calculates that forcing new elections serves her party better than letting Macron's camp own an unpopular €43.8 billion austerity package.
New colour-coded calendar system requires invitations for badge-holders without offices during five annual 'white weeks', part of transparency reforms after Qatargate and Huaweigate scandals.
Prime minister faces near-certain defeat on 8 September with only 210 government deputies against 353 opposition MPs, leaving France facing its third prime minister in under a year.
ECB officials say near-total dollar dominance in fast-growing stablecoin market threatens euro's international role and could weaken central bank control over monetary conditions in the eurozone.
About 1,500 staff have signed an open letter accusing the institution of complicity in potential war crimes, while the Commission insists foreign policy belongs to member states and warns against workplace activism.
Centrist deputies argue the far right's exclusion from the National Assembly Bureau fuels victimhood narratives, but the move would further erode the firewall maintained across Europe.
Karol Nawrocki's inauguration creates a presidential veto that could paralyse judicial reform, tax policy and social legislation until the 2027 election, with only defence policy offering common ground.
Legislation will enfranchise 1.5 million teenagers across the UK, aligning Westminster with Scotland and Wales, while a wider electoral package tightens foreign donation rules and extends voter ID requirements.
The European Commission proposes €300 billion for the next Common Agricultural Policy, down from €386.6 billion. Farmers and MEPs across parties say the reduction breaks a post-war settlement.
The chamber of extraordinary oversight and public affairs validated Karol Nawrocki's 50.9% victory over Rafał Trzaskowski, but the ruling deepens a constitutional standoff over the chamber's own legal standing.
Campaigners warn the European Green Deal is being dismantled through omnibus simplification packages that slash reporting scope by 80% and exclude 90% of firms from the carbon border mechanism, while the anti-greenwashing law was withdrawn this week.
Leaked 'chemicals omnibus' bill would relax automatic bans on cancer-causing substances and simplify hazard labelling, drawing criticism from consumer groups and environmental lawyers.
Polish prime minister wins 243-210 in parliament but faces two years of difficult cohabitation with a hostile president before 2027 elections.
Polish prime minister wins parliamentary backing with 242 votes but faces a hostile president, a restless coalition and polls showing a third of voters expect early elections before 2027.
Prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's party sits at 30 percent while 11 rivals split the rest, leaving voters angry but without a credible alternative.
Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán and allies gathered south of Paris to claim momentum one year after their strongest European Parliament showing, while Le Pen's legal appeal clouds her 2027 presidential prospects.
The foreign affairs committees of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania issued a joint statement on June 6 calling for Ukraine to become a full EU member by January 2030 and urging the NATO summit in The Hague to take political decisions on alliance membership.
The quarter-point move brings the deposit facility rate down from its 4% peak, but policymakers signal caution on further easing amid trade uncertainty and sticky core inflation.
European Commission and ECB approve 21st eurozone member after inflation falls to 2.7% and debt sits at 24.1% of GDP, but FATF gray listing and corruption concerns remain unresolved.
Austria faces strengthened fiscal surveillance for the first time in over a decade while Romania risks losing cohesion funds after years of missing targets.
EU foreign policy chief says US pressure is 'better than no love' as European countries formally approve landmark military spending plan while defence commissioner warns of looming transatlantic split.
Three decades after the Nitrates Directive, a third of Europe's freshwater still exceeds pollution limits while the Baltic Sea hosts the world's largest dead zone. Political pressure from farmers is weakening what little enforcement exists.
Mārtiņš Kazāks argues the trade war forces overdue integration but warns recession risk is not trivial as IMF cuts euro area growth to 0.8% for 2025.
Friedrich Merz's CDU and the Social Democrats agree a fifth grand coalition with a 13-seat majority, pledging to reform debt rules, boost the Bundeswehr and tighten borders as Germany faces recession and AfD gains.
Far-right party signals it may withdraw support for minority government, raising prospect of fresh political crisis just four months after Barnier's fall
Petr Fiala says the ANO leader's opposition to the Czech ammunition initiative and defence spending effectively helps Moscow, while STEM polling puts Babiš on 33 percent against the governing coalition's 17 percent.
A scenario where Reform UK wins the most votes but Labour retains a Commons majority would expose first-past-the-post's distortions more starkly than 2024, campaigners argue.
Prime Minister Miloš Vučević's cabinet formally steps down after weeks of mass protests over a deadly train station collapse, while President Aleksandar Vučić sets a 30-day deadline to form a new government or face a snap vote.
Prime minister's minority government falls 142-88 over consultancy firm allegations, triggering caretaker period and likely May ballot with polls showing no clear winner
Minority centre-right alliance loses confidence vote after less than a year in office, plunging the country into fresh political uncertainty as €22bn in EU funds await deployment.
The ÖVP, SPÖ and Neos have agreed a three-party government programme that avoids an EU deficit procedure, tightens asylum rules and names Christian Stocker chancellor, but the Neos membership must still approve it on Sunday.
The ÖVP, SPÖ and Neos agree a 200-page programme after five months of deadlock, giving Christian Stocker a slim parliamentary majority but leaving the Freedom Party polling at 35 per cent.
Spain, Portugal and Greece drive euro area growth while Germany records a second consecutive annual contraction, exposing a deepening north-south divide that economists say cannot be bridged by the periphery alone.
The draft agenda reveals three omnibus simplification packages, a Clean Industrial Deal and migration returns overhaul, but omits promised automotive and maritime strategies.
Conservatives lead polls at 30 percent but AfD's 20 percent blocks simple majority, forcing CDU/CSU into complex negotiations with SPD or Greens as migration policy fractures traditional alliances.
From Germany to Austria, mainstream conservatives are adopting hardline immigration platforms to stem voter losses, but evidence shows the strategy only strengthens the radical right.
European Commission president unveils Competitiveness Compass promising 25 per cent cut in administrative burdens, but green groups and unions warn against deregulation by stealth.
About 14% of the adult population cannot vote on 23 February despite living, working and paying taxes in Germany. Recent citizenship reforms shortened waiting times but administrative delays and income requirements still exclude millions.
The billionaire's endorsement of far-right parties in Germany and Britain tests the EU's Digital Services Act and exposes transatlantic tensions over platform power.
Herbert Kickl's Freedom Party leads coalition talks after September election victory, threatening to add Vienna to a growing bloc of Moscow-friendly capitals that could paralyse unanimous EU decisions on Ukraine, migration and climate.
Foreign minister says Germany has lost its role as a driving force for European peace policy while a €3 billion package remains blocked by a dispute over constitutional borrowing limits.
Far-right National Rally and centre-left Socialists refuse to back far-left motion, leaving prime minister dependent on case-by-case support with no legislative majority.
Morgan McSweeney met EU counterparts in December while Downing Street prepares to hire a dedicated foreign affairs adviser and a senior negotiator for talks with Brussels, signalling a more structured approach to the reset.
Chancellor's letter to von der Leyen demands regulatory rollback and subsidies, drawing accusations of plagiarising conservative platform weeks before February vote