ECB faces warnings of recession risk if it raises rates in June
Senior economists argue the central bank is misreading stagflation driven by energy costs and risks turning a slowdown into a contraction.
Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
Person
Chief economist, Berenberg
Senior economists argue the central bank is misreading stagflation driven by energy costs and risks turning a slowdown into a contraction.
Bank of Malta governor breaks with dovish colleagues to warn that even a ceasefire may not lower energy prices enough to avoid tightening at June meeting.
Opposition leader wins 138 of 199 seats as forint hits four-year high and bond yields drop sharply. EU leaders welcome result but energy ties to Russia and constitutional reform pose immediate tests.
Preliminary European Commission data shows the sharpest monthly deterioration since the war began, with employment expectations weakening across retail, services and industry while the ECB warns of stagflation risks.
A €500bn fund and debt brake reform were supposed to revive the eurozone's largest economy. Economists now say the spending is too slow and too much goes to rising social costs rather than investment.
The ECB president must address her homeland's mounting debt crisis while keeping deposit rates at 2 percent and avoiding any signal of market intervention.
The single currency hit 1.1369 against the dollar in mid-April, driven by capital flight from US assets and a brighter eurozone growth outlook, though German exporters face new headwinds.
The newsletter
Delivered to your inbox on the days we publish. No daily digest, no push notifications, no advertising.