ECB holds rates at 2% and upgrades growth forecasts as trade fears fade
The central bank revised 2025 growth to 1.4% and signalled a long pause, but Governing Council members are split on whether the next move is up or down.
Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
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Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
The central bank revised 2025 growth to 1.4% and signalled a long pause, but Governing Council members are split on whether the next move is up or down.
The ECB kept rates steady while flagging internal divisions over the next move, Norway and Sweden paused their easing cycles, and the Bank of England delivered a quarter-point cut to 3.75% as UK inflation eased.
With Christine Lagarde due to step down in 2027, Madrid and Berlin, the eurozone's fourth and largest economies, are quietly manoeuvring for the first time to lead the central bank, while a Dutch dark horse lurks.
The ECB president must address her homeland's mounting debt crisis while keeping deposit rates at 2 percent and avoiding any signal of market intervention.
The deposit facility rate stays unchanged after seven consecutive cuts, with Lagarde signalling patience until the EU, US tariff picture clears. Markets still price one more move this year but the bar has risen.
ECB president tells Berlin audience that geopolitical shifts create a chance for the euro to expand its 20% share of global reserves, but analysts remain split on whether Europe can deliver the deeper capital markets and political unity required.
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