Eurozone inflation jumps to 2.5% as Iran war drives energy costs higher
March data shows the sharpest annual price rise in over a year, forcing the ECB to weigh rate hikes against an economy already strained by expensive energy.
Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
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Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, European Central Bank
March data shows the sharpest annual price rise in over a year, forcing the ECB to weigh rate hikes against an economy already strained by expensive energy.
Christine Lagarde says a 'not-too-persistent' overshoot could warrant policy tightening as energy shock pushes 2026 forecast to 2.6% and severe scenario sees 6% peak
Gas prices have nearly doubled since Friday's attacks on Iran. The ECB says it will monitor but not yet act, yet the last energy crisis showed monetary policy was slow, blunt and damaged the green transition while corporate profits drove two-thirds of inflation.
Philip Lane says the monetary tightening that brought eurozone inflation from 10% to 1.9% is complete, but warns new shocks require vigilance as growth remains weak.
The European Commission and ECB have confirmed Bulgaria meets convergence criteria, but domestic opposition remains fierce as the country prepares to become the 21st eurozone member.
European Commission and ECB approve 21st eurozone member after inflation falls to 2.7% and debt sits at 24.1% of GDP, but FATF gray listing and corruption concerns remain unresolved.
Christine Lagarde says Europe must reduce reliance on Visa, Mastercard and PayPal, yet domestic schemes in Germany and France already handle most transactions while a consultant argues US networks carry under 1% of payment value.
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