Andrej Babis wins Czech election with 34.7% as voters punish outgoing coalition

Andrej Babis, the billionaire former prime minister who describes himself as a "Trumpist", has won the Czech parliamentary election with his ANO movement securing 34.7 percent of the vote after 99 percent of ballots were counted on Saturday. The result represents a striking comeback for a politician who was ousted in 2021 and now faces trial for EU subsidy fraud, and it shifts the country of 10.9 million people away from the staunchly pro-Ukraine stance of the outgoing government.

The numbers and what they tell us

With nearly the full count complete, the pro-Western coalition led by outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala took 23.2 percent, its partner STAN 11.2 percent, the Pirate Party 8.9 percent, the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) 7.8 percent and the right-wing newcomers the Motorists 6.8 percent. Six parties in total cleared the 5 percent threshold, giving the new Chamber of Deputies a fragmented look that nevertheless hands Babis a comfortable plurality. In 2021 ANO finished first with 27.1 percent but was kept out of power by a five-party coalition; this time the gap to the second force is wider, and the arithmetic for a non-ANO majority is considerably tighter.

Turnout was not yet finalised at the time of writing, but the Czech Statistical Office reported strong participation in the morning hours. The result means ANO will hold roughly 70 to 75 seats in the 200-seat lower house, short of a majority but well placed to attempt a minority administration or a coalition with one or both of the smaller right-wing parties.

Babis's platform: welfare at home, silence abroad

Babis campaigned on a "Czechs first" message that echoed Donald Trump's America First rhetoric, promising to protect pensions, freeze energy prices and stop the flow of Czech weapons to Ukraine. He has described himself as a "peacemonger" calling for a truce, and on Saturday he said the new government would review the Czech-led international drive to supply artillery shells to Ukraine, an initiative launched by Fiala's administration, and would "discuss it with President Zelensky" if necessary. At the same time he insisted: "We are clearly pro-European and pro-NATO," a line intended to dispel fears that he would drag the Czech Republic into the orbit of Viktor Orban's Hungary and Robert Fico's Slovakia, both of which have refused military aid to Kyiv and opposed EU sanctions on Moscow.

The artillery shell programme has been one of the most tangible European contributions to Ukraine's defence, with Prague coordinating purchases from third countries and delivering hundreds of thousands of rounds. A Czech withdrawal or slowdown would be felt immediately on the front lines and would undermine the European Commission's broader effort to demonstrate that the EU can act as a security provider independent of the United States.

Coalition arithmetic: SPD and the Motorists hold the keys

Babis was explicit about his intentions on Saturday night: "We will definitely lead talks with the SPD and the Motorists and seek a single-party government led by ANO." A single-party minority government would require tacit support from at least one of those two parties on confidence votes. The SPD, led by Tokyo-born Tomio Okamura, advocates a referendum on EU membership, a position Babis has "vehemently rejected", but its 7.8 percent gives it 15 to 17 seats. The Motorists, a new vehicle channelling anger at traffic restrictions and green regulations, add another 13 to 14 seats. Together they could give ANO a working majority of roughly 100 to 105 seats, though policy disagreements on Europe and the rule of law would be immediate.

Otto Eibl of Masaryk University in Brno told AFP that the SPD "will be the key player" and questioned whether Okamura would be satisfied staying outside the cabinet while wielding policy influence. Okamura said he would meet Babis later on Saturday. The Motorists have no parliamentary track record, making their reliability as partners uncertain.

The legal cloud: fraud trial and conflict of interest

Babis's victory comes with a unique legal baggage. He is charged with taking his Stork's Nest farm south of Prague out of his sprawling Agrofert food and chemicals holding in 2007 to make it eligible for an EU subsidy reserved for small companies. The alleged fraud exceeds $2 million. The case has dragged on for years; a trial is pending. Separately, President Petr Pavel met Babis earlier this week to discuss his conflict of interest as a businessman-politician. Under Czech law, ministers must not control media or large corporate empires; Babis placed Agrofert in trust funds in 2017 but critics argue he retains effective control. "On the conflict of interest, I have promised Mr President to meet him and show him a solution that will be in line with Czech and European laws," Babis said on Saturday.

The European Commission has also pursued recovery of the subsidy through its own audit mechanisms. A final ruling against Babis could, in theory, trigger a parliamentary immunity vote, though that would require a majority in the new chamber, a majority Babis is now constructing.

International context: Patriots for Europe and the Orban connection

In the European Parliament, ANO sits in the Patriots for Europe group, which Babis co-founded with Orban in 2024. The Hungarian prime minister was quick to celebrate: "Truth has prevailed! A big step for the Czech Republic, good news for Europe. Congratulations, Andrej!" he wrote on X. The group also includes parties from Austria, Belgium, France, Italy and the Netherlands, and it has positioned itself as the main vehicle for a sovereignist, anti-federalist agenda in the new parliamentary term. Babis's win adds a second central European government, after Fico's return in Slovakia, to that informal bloc, potentially complicating EU consensus on Ukraine, migration and rule-of-law conditionality.

Yet analysts caution against overstating the geopolitical pivot. Josef Mlejnek of Charles University told AFP he did not expect "a fundamental change" in Czech foreign policy, arguing that Babis is "a pragmatic businessman and the only thing he cares about is being prime minister." Czech exports are heavily integrated into German and broader EU supply chains; Agrofert itself does substantial business in western Europe. A rupture with Brussels would carry immediate economic costs that a businessman-turned-politician may wish to avoid.

Why voters switched: inflation, housing and fatigue

The outgoing coalition's defeat was not solely about Ukraine. Fiala's government, in office since December 2021, presided over a sharp inflation spike that peaked above 17 percent in early 2023, a cost-of-living crisis that eroded real wages, and a housing market that remained inaccessible for younger voters despite repeated promises of construction reform. Tax increases introduced to consolidate the budget, including a higher VAT rate and a solidarity surcharge on high earners, fed a narrative that the government was extracting money from ordinary Czechs while sending billions abroad. The artillery shell programme, while popular in some quarters, became a symbol of misplaced priorities for voters struggling with mortgage payments and energy bills.

Fiala acknowledged the verdict on Saturday: "I congratulate the election winner, which is Andrej Babis," he said, adding that he rejected any efforts to rebuild the current governing coalition. His Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and its allies now face a period in opposition after three years that saw the Czech Republic take a leading role in European support for Ukraine, host a NATO summit and push through a ambitious defence spending increase to 2 percent of GDP.

What happens next: President Pavel's move

Under the Czech constitution, President Petr Pavel, a former NATO general elected in 2023, has the power to appoint the prime minister and, on the prime minister's proposal, the cabinet. He said he would start talks with the elected party heads on Sunday 5 October. The timeline is not fixed by law, but precedent suggests a designation within two to three weeks, followed by a confidence vote in the Chamber of Deputies within 30 days of appointment. If Babis fails to secure confidence, Pavel can entrust the mandate to another leader, likely the runner-up Fiala, though the arithmetic for an alternative majority looks forbidding.