Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
Topic · Thing
The rise of national-conservative and radical-right parties across Europe, and the effect on coalition arithmetic in national capitals and in Strasbourg.
Reform UK leader secures second victory in Essex seat without major party opposition, while parliamentary standards inquiry looms and constituency's deprived neighbourhoods see no new promises.
Former prime minister and Renaissance leader bets that a summer spent meeting voters at markets, ports and vineyards can erode Edouard Philippe's lead for the centrist vote ahead of the April 2027 presidential election.
Italy's prime minister suspends Schengen with Spain and adopts tougher tone on borders to protect her right flank ahead of a possible spring election.
Conservative politicians discuss replacing Friedrich Merz after one year as AfD leads national polls and threatens to win state power for the first time in September.
Around 50,000 Moroccan migrants crossed into the Spanish enclave in late July, leaving 88 dead and handing far-right parties across Europe a potent campaign issue ahead of a cluster of national votes in 2027.
With parliament in deadlock and the president under pressure, the Alliance for the Union of Romanians leads polls at 36 percent while Brussels watches a NATO ally on Ukraine's border.
More than 100,000 people evacuated across four regions as temperatures near 40°C. The PP governs 11 of 17 regions and faces scrutiny over firefighting cuts and climate rhetoric shaped by Vox alliances.
German chancellor says foreign financing of political parties is illegal as State Department launches programme framed around 'civilizational heritage' and 'lawfare'
German chancellor rejects nearly $5 million State Department programme targeting 'Western civilisational heritage' weeks before key regional vote where AfD leads polls.
French far-right leader announces candidacy hours after court upholds embezzlement conviction, while party president Bardella signals pragmatic shift toward Berlin's centre-right
Reform UK leader resigns Clacton seat while under investigation for undeclared £5 million gift, framing the move as a referendum on establishment pressure.
A French appeals court rules Tuesday on whether the National Rally leader's embezzlement conviction and five-year ban on public office will stand, potentially ending her fourth bid for the Élysée.
Paris appeal court rules Tuesday on whether to uphold a five-year ineligibility sentence that would exclude the National Rally leader from her strongest-ever shot at the Élysée, while her protégé Jordan Bardella waits in the wings.
ECB president tells Les Echos she may leave before her 2027 term ends to inject a European voice into a French campaign dominated by the far-right National Rally.
Analysis by 150 political scientists shows support has nearly quintupled since 1995, with the steepest gains concentrated in the past three years across France, Germany and Austria.
Nicusor Dan's surprise choice of Adrian Vestea breaks constitutional convention and splits his own party, leaving Romania's pro-European forces fragmented as far-right support grows.
Pauline Hanson's party hits 31 per cent in primary vote while government and traditional opposition both lose ground after May budget
Voters go to the polls on Sunday with polls showing the traditional DISY and AKEL parties falling to around 20% each, while far-right ELAM and new anti-establishment movements surge.
Nicușor Dan rules out reviving fallen coalition and prepares consultations with parties including the far-right AUR, ten months after Ilie Bolojan's government lost a confidence vote.
Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan's pro-EU coalition collapsed after 281 MPs backed a motion tabled by the Social Democrats and the far-right AUR, leaving Bucharest scrambling to form a new administration before an August deadline for €10bn in EU recovery funds.
Social Democrats join far-right opposition to remove centre-right premier after ten months, leaving president to navigate coalition talks amid EU deficit procedure and eurozone aspirations.
PSD's vote with AUR to topple the centrist government exposes a gap between the centre-left's European rhetoric and national coalition realities, with Greens and liberals demanding clarity on where the red line now lies.
PSD and AUR announce joint no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, but fall 14 seats short of a parliamentary majority as the country's political fragmentation deepens.
Berlin counters US vice president's claim that Brussels meddled in Hungarian election, noting his own Budapest visit days before the ballot amounted to endorsement of Viktor Orbán.
MEPs voted 389 to 206 to advance legislation allowing rejected asylum seekers to be sent to centres in third countries, with penalties for those who refuse relocation.
Social Democrats remain largest party but lose ground to left and right; Meloni suffers referendum defeat in Italy; Le Pen stalls in French cities; Golob survives Slovenia's closest vote.
Viktor Orban hosted Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders and other European nationalist leaders days before the April 12 election, but only 2,000 supporters attended while his party trails the Tisza opposition by a wide margin amid corruption and Russian influence scandals.
The Free Democrats poll at 4, 5 percent days before Sunday's election, risking their first ever exit from the southwestern state parliament and raising doubts about the party's national survival after last year's federal wipeout.
With Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella favoured to win next year's presidential election, Berlin, Brussels and Kyiv are accelerating nuclear, budget and enlargement agreements that a National Rally government could unpick.
Janez Janša's SDS leads Robert Golob's Freedom Movement by eight points with three weeks to vote, exposing a fragmented centre-left and a healthcare crisis that has become a proxy for state capacity.
The newsletter
Delivered to your inbox on the days we publish. No daily digest, no push notifications, no advertising.