Catherine Connolly wins Irish presidency with 64.7% as turnout falls to 46.3%

Catherine Connolly, a 68-year-old independent TD from Galway, has won the Irish presidency with 64.7% of the vote, delivering the strongest mandate for a directly elected president since the office was opened to popular vote in 1937. Her victory over Fine Gael's Heather Humphreys, who took 28.2%, came in an election defined less by enthusiasm for the winner than by a broad rejection of the political establishment.

A landslide built on absence

The scale of Connolly's win flatters her support. Jim Gavin, the Fianna Fáil candidate who withdrew three weeks before polling day over a rent payment controversy, still collected just over 7%, a reminder that nearly one in fourteen voters either missed his withdrawal or used his name to register dissent. With Conor McGregor, Bob Geldof and Michael Flatley all having abandoned earlier bids, the ballot offered no viable conservative or centre-right alternative. Right-wing commentators urged supporters to spoil their papers. Roughly one in eight did exactly that.

Turnout of 46.3% was the lowest for a contested presidential election since Mary McAleese's unopposed re-election in 2004, and well below the 58% recorded in 2018 when Michael D. Higgins won his second term. The combination of low participation and mass spoilage means Connolly's 64.7% represents the backing of roughly 30% of the registered electorate. That is a mandate, but not the sweeping popular endorsement the headline figure suggests.

The spoiled ballot protest

The spoiled vote, estimated at 12.5% by The Irish Times, is without precedent in an Irish presidential election. In 2018, spoiled papers accounted for 1.6%. The surge reflects organised campaigns by anti-immigration groups and conservative commentators who argued that the main parties had colluded to exclude a right-of-centre candidate. Immigration has become the faultline in Irish politics that the coalition refuses to acknowledge. Violent protests against asylum seeker accommodation have erupted in Dublin and regional towns over the past two years, fuelled by a housing crisis that has left record numbers in emergency accommodation.

Eoin O'Malley, professor of political science at Dublin City University, told AFP the election had become a "referendum on the centre-right government." He added that the spoiled ballots "reflect a deep anger and dissatisfaction with all the parties, which refuse to discuss issues such as immigration." The government, a coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and independent TDs, has dismissed the protests as the work of a far-right fringe. The ballot papers suggest the frustration runs wider.

Connolly's politics: peace, neutrality, and friction with Brussels

Connolly campaigned on "peace, unity and neutrality." A fluent Irish speaker from the left of the Labour Party before she became an independent, she was endorsed by Sinn Féin, Labour, the Social Democrats and People Before Profit. Her foreign policy positions place her at odds with the government and with the mainstream of Irish public opinion on Europe. Ireland is one of the EU's most consistently pro-integration member states; Connolly has opposed increased EU defence spending since the invasion of Ukraine, comparing German rearmament to the 1930s. She has also condemned the United States, United Kingdom and France for their roles in the war in Gaza.

These views are not merely rhetorical. The president signs legislation, refers bills to the Supreme Court, and represents the state abroad. While the office is largely ceremonial, Connolly's platform gives her a megaphone. Her first test may come if the Oireachtas passes legislation implementing EU defence initiatives or security commitments that she has publicly opposed. She can refer such bills to the Council of State and, ultimately, to the Supreme Court, a power no president has used since 1976.

A government under pressure

The result is a personal blow for Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil between them command roughly 40% of first-preference support in general election polls, yet their combined presidential vote share fell below 36%. Humphreys, a cabinet minister and party loyalist, ran a low-profile campaign that avoided the immigration issue almost entirely. The strategy assumed the election would be a quiet coronation for a safe pair of hands. Instead, it became a proxy vote on a coalition that has governed since 2020 without facing a general election.

Housing is the coalition's deepest vulnerability. The Department of Housing reported 13,841 people in emergency accommodation in August 2025, the highest figure since records began. Rents in Dublin have risen 42% since 2015. The government's Housing for All plan has missed its delivery targets for three consecutive years. Connolly made housing central to her campaign, arguing that the presidency should be a voice for those the system has failed. The government has no effective rebuttal.

The missing candidates

The race's most striking feature was who did not run. Conor McGregor announced his candidacy in September, framing it as a challenge to the political class on immigration and crime. He withdrew three weeks later after polling showed his support collapsing amid renewed scrutiny of his 2024 civil rape conviction in Dublin and a pending US federal lawsuit alleging sexual assault in Miami. His brief entry dominated headlines and forced the other candidates to respond to his agenda. Bob Geldof and Michael Flatley, both mentioned as possible independent centrist candidates, never formally entered.

McGregor's visit to the White House in March 2025 as a guest of Donald Trump for St Patrick's Day celebrations had signalled his ambition to position himself as a transatlantic voice for a nationalist Ireland. His exit left a vacuum on the right that no party filled. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil calculated that a competitive conservative candidate would split their vote and hand the presidency to the left. They may have miscalculated: the spoiled ballots suggest their own voters stayed away or protested rather than back Humphreys.

What the presidency can and cannot do

Connolly takes office on 11 November 2025, succeeding Michael D. Higgins after 14 years. The constitution gives the president three substantive powers: referral of bills to the Supreme Court for constitutionality review, referral of bills to the people via referendum (on petition of a majority of senators and one-third of TDs), and dissolution of the Dáil on the advice of a Taoiseach who has lost a confidence vote. Everything else is soft power, speeches, patronage of charities, diplomatic receptions, the Council of State.

Higgins used the soft power assiduously, travelling widely, championing climate action, migration rights and ethical foreign policy. He rarely clashed with the government. Connolly has signalled a more confrontational approach. Her victory speech at Dublin Castle, "I will be a president who listens, who reflects and who speaks when it's necessary. Together we can shape a new republic that values everybody", was coded language for a presidency that will not stay silent on Gaza, on EU militarisation, or on domestic inequality.