Czech election pits billionaire Babiš against fractured centre-right

Czechs vote on Friday and Saturday in a parliamentary election that could return billionaire Andrej Babiš to the prime minister's office he left in 2021, shifting the country's stance on Ukraine, migration and European climate policy toward the sceptical end of the Central European spectrum. His ANO party leads final opinion polls at 29 percent, a comfortable margin over the governing centre-right coalition Spolu at 20 percent, but the arithmetic of the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies means the real contest begins after the ballots are counted.

A fragmented ballot and a high threshold

Twenty-six parties appear on the ballot, though only about eight are projected to clear the 5 percent threshold for entry to parliament. Polling stations open at 2 p.m. on Friday and close at 2 p.m. on Saturday, with preliminary results expected late Saturday afternoon. For the first time, Czechs abroad can vote by correspondence, a logistical change that may marginally boost turnout among the diaspora.

The current coalition has fractured before the vote. Spolu, comprising the Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) and TOP 09, runs as a bloc, but its fourth partner, Mayors and Independents (STAN), contests the election separately at around 11 percent. The liberal Pirate Party, which quit the government last September, polls near 10 percent after a campaign notable for election songs and collaborations with YouTubers. On the far right, Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) under Tomio Okamura sits at 13 percent, while the far-left Stačilo! and the car-centric Motorists for Themselves hover near the threshold.

Ukraine policy at the centre of the foreign policy divide

The sharpest foreign policy contrast concerns Ukraine. Czechia hosts the largest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita in the European Union and has been a leading contributor of military aid, notably the Prague-led ammunition initiative that has delivered millions of artillery rounds to Kyiv. Babiš has vowed to cancel that initiative, arguing NATO should run such schemes instead. Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský called the proposal "foolish and short-sighted" and "an enormous gift to Putin." Petr Kaniok of Masaryk University told POLITICO that ANO is "much more inclined toward Russia, much less toward Ukraine" and predicted a significant Czech withdrawal from current political, symbolic and material support for Kyiv.

Babiš rejects the pro-Russian label. "That we will pull the Czech Republic somewhere to the east is a brutal lie that government politicians just use scare people," he said in a statement. The rhetoric matters beyond Prague: Slovakia's government has tilted toward Moscow, Austria maintains opaque Russian links, and Hungary has been the EU's most Kremlin-sympathetic member during the war. A Czech pivot would extend a corridor of scepticism across the centre of the continent.

The Agrofert shadow and the conflict-of-interest law

Babiš's business empire, Agrofert, has dogged his political career. He placed the conglomerate into two trust funds in 2017 to comply with Czech conflict-of-interest legislation, but a 2019 European Commission audit found he continued to exercise "direct" and "indirect" influence over them. Czech courts have since confirmed that Babiš retained control while prime minister. The Agriculture Ministry has demanded Agrofert return more than €200 million in farm subsidies; Babiš says it will not happen.

He now faces a verdict from the Prague District Court on whether he defrauded the EU of €2 million by carving out the "Stork's Nest" farm to make it appear a medium-sized business eligible for subsidies. The High Court overturned an earlier acquittal in June, and the lower court is bound by that ruling unless new evidence emerges. Babiš calls the case "absurd" and "a political trial." Polls suggest his voters largely disregard the legal proceedings.

President Petr Pavel holds a constitutional card. The conflict-of-interest law bars officials from controlling a business that creates a conflict with their governing function. Pavel could refuse to appoint Babiš even if he wins, though the president said on Monday he would "respect the constitution and the election results" and work to ensure "the formation of a stable and competent government." Legal opinion is divided on whether blocking a winning candidate would itself be constitutional.

Coalition arithmetic: no easy partner for the winner

No party is projected to win an outright majority. Babiš has said his "best thing" would be a single-party majority government above 40 percent of seats, a scenario pollsters consider unlikely. Both Spolu and ANO have ruled out cooperating with each other. That leaves the fringe. Babiš ruled out a coalition with SPD last year but has grown ambiguous as the election nears; the two already share power in four Czech regions. On Tuesday he excluded the Communists, though his first cabinet relied on their support. The Pirates, STAN and the smaller right-wing groups, Motorists, The Oath, each have red lines that make a stable coalition difficult to assemble.

Austerity fatigue and the protest vote

Fiala's coalition has the lowest public support of any Czech government since 2013. The prime minister's austerity package, spending cuts and tax increases aimed at reducing the deficit, alienated pensioners, public-sector workers and small businesses. That discontent fuels the protest vote that ANO harvests. Babiš's "shovel theory" of leadership, described by political marketing expert Anna Shavit, presents him as a pragmatic doer who cuts through bureaucracy, a message that resonates with voters who feel the current government has managed decline rather than delivered improvement.

The Pirates' surge to around 10 percent reflects a different protest current: younger, urban, digitally native voters frustrated by both the austerity of the centre-right and the populism of ANO. Their campaign, built on social media and cultural outreach, suggests Czech politics is fragmenting along generational as well as ideological lines.

The regional context: a Central European pivot?

The Czech result will be read in Bratislava, Vienna and Budapest as much as in Brussels. Slovakia's Robert Fico has already reduced military aid to Ukraine and opposed EU sanctions packages. Hungary's Viktor Orbán has long blocked or diluted collective European positions on Russia. Austria's coalition includes the Freedom Party, which has historical ties to Russian entities. A Czech government under Babiš, especially one reliant on SPD support, would complete a quadrant of Central European capitals where enthusiasm for the current EU consensus on Ukraine, migration and rule of law is notably cooler.

NATO's ammunition initiative, launched under Czech leadership in 2024, is the most concrete test. The alliance has struggled to ramp up artillery production; the Czech scheme bypassed some of that inertia by sourcing shells globally. Cancelling it would force NATO to either absorb the programme or lose a functioning supply line. Babiš argues NATO control would be more transparent; critics say it would add bureaucracy and delay.

What the polls cannot capture

Czech polling has a mixed recent record. In 2021, surveys underestimated Spolu and overestimated ANO by several points. The 5 percent threshold creates cliff-edge dynamics: a fraction of a percent decides whether Stačilo!, Motorists or The Oath enter parliament, each shift rewriting the coalition map. Turnout, especially among younger voters mobilised by the Pirates and among diaspora voters using the new correspondence option, could move the final shares by one or two points, enough to change which fringe parties cross the line. The only certainty is that the result on Saturday evening will be the starting gun for a negotiation that will shape Czech foreign policy, EU alignment and the fate of a billionaire's legal troubles for the next four years.