German coalition draft unveils strictest migration crackdown in decades

Germany's two largest parties have agreed on a migration package that would mark the most restrictive turn in the country's asylum and return policy since the 1990s, according to a draft negotiating text circulating between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. The measures, approved by working groups on Monday, include a sharp expansion of detention capacity for migrants awaiting deportation, a two-year suspension of family reunification for subsidiary protection holders, and the addition of Algeria, India, Morocco and Tunisia to the list of countries deemed safe for return.

The draft also introduces automatic deportation triggers for migrants sentenced to prison terms and removes the requirement for mandatory legal counselling before repatriation. If implemented, the changes would give the incoming government of Friedrich Merz a toolkit that goes well beyond the incremental tightening seen under the outgoing traffic-light coalition. The text, seen by POLITICO, reflects the political pressure exerted by the Alternative for Germany, which secured second place in the February 23 federal election with 20.8 percent of the vote, the strongest showing for a far-right force at national level since the Second World War.

What the migration agreement contains

The detention expansion is the most operationally significant element. Current capacity in the federal states stands at roughly 400 places; the draft envisages a multi-fold increase, though a precise figure remains bracketed for final negotiation. Family reunification for beneficiaries of subsidiary protection, a category that has grown since the 2015-16 arrival wave, would be paused entirely for 24 months, a measure the SPD had previously resisted on humanitarian grounds. The safe-country additions target four states that together account for a sizeable share of rejected asylum claims: in 2024, nationals of Algeria, India, Morocco and Tunisia lodged more than 35,000 applications, with recognition rates below five percent.

Legal assistance before return has been a procedural safeguard since a 2019 Federal Constitutional Court ruling. Its removal would accelerate the timeline from final rejection to physical departure, but it will almost certainly face constitutional challenge. The deportation trigger for custodial sentences applies irrespective of the offence category, meaning even relatively short prison terms could activate removal proceedings. Interior ministry officials estimate that roughly 12,000 rejected applicants currently fall into this bracket.

The AfD factor and the political calculus

The AfD's electoral breakthrough has reshaped the coalition's risk calculus. In 2017, the party entered the Bundestag with 12.6 percent; its 2025 result nearly doubles that share and makes it the largest opposition bloc. For the CDU/CSU, the calculation is twofold: deny the AfD ownership of the migration issue while signalling to a sceptical electorate that the centre-right can deliver control. For the SPD, the logic is defensive, avoid being painted as the party that blocks 'orderly' returns, but it exposes the Social Democrats to criticism from their own left wing and from migrant organisations.

Migration researchers at the Federal Statistical Office note that net migration in 2024 fell to roughly 660,000, down from the 2022 peak of 1.46 million driven by Ukrainian displacement. Asylum applications, however, remained elevated at just under 230,000. The gap between arrivals and enforced returns, currently fewer than 20,000 annually, is the metric the new government most wants to close.

Where the parties still diverge

The most conspicuous omission from the agreed text is the CDU/CSU demand for asylum processing and return centres in third countries, a model inspired by the Italian-Albanian agreement and the UK-Rwanda scheme before its cancellation. The SPD working group rejected the proposal outright, citing legal uncertainty under the Geneva Convention and the European Convention on Human Rights. The issue has been kicked to the leadership level, where it will be negotiated alongside the defence portfolio.

Defence spending is the second fault line. Merz has made a 3.5 percent of GDP target the centrepiece of his security platform, arguing that the NATO two percent floor is insufficient given the Russian threat and the unpredictability of US commitments under President Trump. The SPD acknowledges the need for higher investment but baulks at a figure that would require an additional 40 to 50 billion euros annually, roughly 1.2 percent of GDP, without a clear financing plan. The NATO summit in The Hague this June will be the first international test of whichever number the coalition settles on.

Compulsory service returns to the agenda

The reintroduction of compulsory military service, suspended in 2011 by the then defence minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, is a CDU/CSU priority framed as both a personnel solution for the Bundeswehr and a societal cohesion measure. The SPD wants to retain the voluntary model, expanded with incentives for a 'gap year' in uniform. Manpower planners estimate that a selective compulsory model, calling up perhaps 30,000 young men and women annually, would take three years to generate deployable reserves, whereas the voluntary track has struggled to fill 20,000 slots per year.

The debate echoes a broader European conversation. Sweden reinstated conscription in 2018; Latvia followed in 2023; Denmark extended it to women in 2024. Germany's constitutional framework permits compulsory service for men under Article 12a of the Basic Law; extending it to women would require a two-thirds parliamentary majority, a hurdle the CDU/CSU may not wish to clear in the first year.

Timeline and next steps

Working groups delivered their drafts on Monday, March 24. The party leaderships, Merz, CSU chief Markus Söder, and SPD co-chairs Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil, now enter the final negotiation phase. Both sides originally targeted an Easter conclusion, roughly April 20, but have since signalled that substance will dictate pace. The SPD party congress, scheduled for early May, must ratify any coalition agreement; the CDU and CSU have their own internal approval processes.

If the migration chapter survives substantially intact, the Bundestag could see the first legislative package before the summer recess. Constitutional challenges from the states, from the Left Party and from civil society organisations would follow almost immediately, potentially delaying implementation by months. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe has a mixed record on asylum tightening: it upheld the 2016 suspension of family reunification but struck down parts of the 2019 'orderly return' law.