Kosovo's Kurti wins election but falls short of majority

Kosovo's nationalist Prime Minister Albin Kurti claimed victory on Sunday after his Vetevendosje party secured roughly half the vote in the country's second parliamentary election this year. With 96 percent of ballots counted, the party stood at about 50 percent, projecting to 56 seats in the 120-seat assembly, five short of the 61 needed for an outright majority. The result ends a year of parliamentary deadlock but opens a new phase of coalition arithmetic that will determine whether Kurti can convert his plurality into a functioning government.

The coalition arithmetic

The numbers leave Kurti dependent on the assembly's reserved minority seats, which are allocated to non-Albanian communities and typically number around ten. Analysts suggest he could reach a working majority by securing support from a handful of those representatives, avoiding a formal coalition with either of the two main opposition blocs. The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) took 20.7 percent and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) 14 percent, according to the preliminary count. Both have ruled out governing with Kurti, citing his handling of relations with Western allies and his approach to the Serb-majority north.

"The results are not final, and I don't see how Kurti will form the government alone, but it will be very easy for him to govern with a small coalition," said Ismet Kryeziu of the Kosovo Democratic Institute. He noted that Kurti needs only a few votes from minority parties to assemble a cabinet. That calculation assumes the minority representatives, mostly Serb, Bosniak, Turkish and Roma lists, are willing to back a prime minister whose tenure has been marked by confrontation with Belgrade and periodic friction with the EU and US over the pace of normalisation talks.

Opposition resistance and the Serb north

The PDK and LDK have consistently refused to enter a Kurti-led government. Their objections centre on two issues: the prime minister's combative style in dealings with Kosovo's Western partners, and his policies toward the northern municipalities where ethnic Serbs form a majority. Kurti's government has pressed for the integration of parallel Serb institutions, including police, courts and municipal services, into Kosovo's legal framework, a move Belgrade and local Serb leaders have resisted. The standoff triggered EU sanctions in 2023, which the bloc lifted this month after ethnic Serb mayors were elected in four northern municipalities following a boycott of the previous local vote. The sanctions, while targeted, are estimated to have cost Kosovo hundreds of millions of euros in lost investment and delayed funding.

Economic stakes: loans and living costs

The immediate pressure on any new government is financial. Parliament must ratify loan agreements worth 1 billion euros from the European Union and the World Bank before the agreements expire in the coming months. The funds are earmarked for budget support, energy infrastructure and social programmes. Without a sitting parliament, the ratification cannot proceed, leaving a hole in public finances at a time when energy prices remain high and real wages have stagnated. Local journalist Erjone Popova described the mood: "We voted also for local election twice this year. This is the fourth time that people are voting this year in Kosovo, and maybe they are tired. Energy costs are high. Salaries have not increased enough, and this is making daily life of the people very difficult."

Voter fatigue and institutional paralysis

Sunday's vote was the fourth election in 2025, two local, two national, a schedule that has strained both the electoral administration and the electorate. Turnout figures were not yet final, but observers reported lower participation than in February's inconclusive election. The acting government, in place since Kurti lost a confidence vote earlier this year, has been unable to pass legislation or approve major spending. That paralysis has delayed not only the EU and World Bank loans but also routine budgetary allocations for healthcare, education and infrastructure. The European Commission's 2024 enlargement report noted that Kosovo's institutional instability remains a key obstacle to progress on the reform agenda required for EU candidacy.

The Serbia normalisation deadline

Beyond domestic politics, the new government will face a fixed diplomatic calendar. The EU has made clear that progress on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue is a prerequisite for Kosovo's advancement toward membership. Both sides have been told they must normalise relations before accession talks can proceed. The dialogue, mediated by the EU and supported by the US, has stalled repeatedly over issues including the Association of Serb Municipalities, licence plates, and mutual recognition. Kurti has insisted that any agreement must respect Kosovo's sovereignty and constitutional order, while Belgrade continues to refuse recognition of Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence. The NATO-led KFOR mission retains a presence of roughly 4,000 troops, a reminder that the 1999 intervention's security architecture remains in place.

Presidential election and the April deadline

The assembly's first order of business once constituted will be the election of a new president in April. The role is largely ceremonial but carries symbolic weight in a political system where the prime minister holds executive power. Kurti's ability to secure his preferred candidate will be an early test of his parliamentary arithmetic. If he cannot command the necessary two-thirds majority in the first two rounds, or a simple majority in the third, the process could prolong the institutional vacuum. The president also has the power to dissolve parliament and call new elections if government formation fails, a scenario that would mean a fifth vote in a single year.