Kosovo votes again as political deadlock threatens EU path

Kosovo goes to the polls on Sunday for its seventh parliamentary election since declaring independence from Serbia in 2008. The vote was triggered after February's election handed Albin Kurti's Self-Determination Movement 42 percent of the vote, a clear plurality, but no absolute majority, and the caretaker prime minister proved unable to assemble a governing coalition. President Vjosa Osmani dissolved parliament in November, setting the stage for a repeat contest that will determine whether Europe's youngest country can finally form a stable government and advance its stalled European Union membership bid.

How the deadlock formed

The February result looked decisive on paper. Self-Determination finished well ahead of the traditional opposition parties, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), but fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member assembly. Kurti attempted to nominate a speaker of parliament multiple times; each failed. He even offered to step aside as prime minister to facilitate a coalition. None of the three main opposition parties accepted. Their refusal was not tactical but ideological: they regard Kurti as a populist whose confrontational style has damaged Kosovo's standing with its most important international partners.

Haki Abazi, an AAK parliamentary candidate who served as deputy prime minister during Kurti's first term in 2019 before being expelled over political differences, put it bluntly. "LDK, PDK, and AAK see Kurti as a populist who has hampered relations with the West and sabotaged NATO membership and the EU integration process," he said. "Kurti is seen as toxic and fragmenting." That assessment is shared across the opposition spectrum. Blerta Deliu-Kodra, a PDK member of parliament, told reporters that "it remains to be seen what the numbers will be" after Sunday, though she expects a government to be formed without Kurti as prime minister.

Kurti's record and the cost of isolation

The friction with Western capitals is not abstract. Kurti's government pursued a hard line in the Serb-majority north, seeking to assert Pristina's sovereignty over institutions and licence plates in a region where Belgrade's influence remains strong. The approach drew punitive measures from both the United States and the European Union in 2023, including the suspension of €400 million in pre-accession assistance and exclusion from certain EU-facilitated programmes. The sanctions were a direct response to what Brussels and Washington judged to be unilateral actions that undermined the EU-led Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue.

Self-Determination disputes this framing. Liza Gashi, acting deputy foreign minister and a party candidate, argued that during Kurti's mandate the government "strengthened democratic institutions, improved key economic indicators, expanded social protection, and governed with integrity and stability." She insisted the party enters the election "with a strong governing record and broad public support." The problem for Kurti is that the opposition, and the international community, judge the record differently. Hajdar Beqa, a PDK candidate, said Kurti's government "has seriously harmed Kosovo's European integration process" and stressed the need for a new government to "return the country on a secure path toward the EU."

The EU funding cliff edge

The financial stakes are concrete. At the EU-Western Balkans Summit last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc would lift the 2023 sanctions and unblock the frozen €400 million in aid. That is the immediate relief. The larger prize, and the larger risk, is the EU's €6 billion Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, a reform-linked investment package designed to accelerate convergence with the single market. Kosovo can only access its share if a functioning government is in place to negotiate and implement the required reforms. Another year of caretaker administration would effectively forfeit the funding.

Besar Gërgi, a European integration expert at the Group for Legal and Political Studies in Pristina, warned that the structural obstacles are already formidable. "Kosovo already faces an uphill battle because of five non-recognizer EU states, and the country cannot afford another year lost to the politicians' inability to do what they were elected for, provide solutions, not create problems," he said. The five, Cyprus, Slovakia, Spain, Greece and Romania, block Kosovo's path to full membership regardless of domestic reforms. That makes the domestic political capacity to deliver on the Growth Plan all the more critical.

Opposition arithmetic and the coalition question

The opposition's ability to translate shared antipathy toward Kurti into a working majority is the central unknown. Abazi believes a three-party coalition of LDK, PDK and AAK is "very likely" if the numbers allow. But the three parties have distinct histories, voter bases and policy priorities. LDK, the oldest party, draws support from the centre-right and has traditionally led on EU integration. PDK, rooted in the former Kosovo Liberation Army, retains strong networks in rural areas. AAK, also with KLA origins, positions itself as a reformist alternative. Their cooperation in government would be untested.

Deliu-Kodra's caution, "it remains to be seen what the numbers will be", reflects a realistic reading of the polls. Self-Determination retains a loyal base, particularly among younger voters and the diaspora, and the 42 percent it secured in February suggests a floor of support that has not collapsed despite the sanctions and international criticism. If the opposition parties collectively fall short of a majority, the deadlock could persist, forcing either a minority government or yet another election.

Serbia, the Serb List and the north

The election cannot be read purely through a Pristina lens. Serbia does not recognise Kosovo and continues to refer to it as "Kosovo and Metohija," the name of the former Serbian province. President Aleksandar Vučić said he hopes "for a big and significant victory" for the Serb List, the dominant party among Kosovo Serbs, expecting it to secure seats to "represent the interests of Serbs, not Albin Kurti." The Serb List has historically acted as Belgrade's proxy in Pristina politics, and its strength in the ten reserved Serb seats, plus any additional seats won in open competition, will affect the assembly's arithmetic.

The Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, facilitated by the EU since 2011, has produced a 2023 normalisation agreement that implies de facto mutual recognition, but implementation has stalled. Kurti told AFP recently that normalisation is necessary but "normalising relations with a neighboring authoritarian regime that doesn't recognise you, that also doesn't admit to the crimes committed during the war, is quite difficult." He insists Serbia must hand over Milan Radoičić, a former Serb List politician accused of orchestrating a September 2023 attack in northern Kosovo that killed a Kosovo police officer. Radoičić remains in Serbia.

Osmani's gamble and the democratic test

President Osmani, a former ally of Kurti who broke with him over governance style, took the constitutional step of dissolving parliament in November after it became clear no government could be formed. She expressed confidence that Sunday's vote would meet "the best democratic standards," deliver swift results and allow for the rapid formation of government institutions. That optimism will be tested by turnout, the speed of the count, and whether the resulting arithmetic permits a coalition, any coalition, to command a majority.

The diaspora vote, which leans heavily toward Self-Determination, could again prove decisive. In February, out-of-country ballots added several percentage points to Kurti's total. The opposition has campaigned on a platform of restoring relations with the EU and US, ending the isolation that has cost Kosovo financially and diplomatically, and professionalising the civil service. Whether that message resonates beyond the anti-Kurti core will determine the next government's composition.

What happens next