Poland's foreign minister Radosław Sikorski told reporters in Weimar on Thursday that more than 2,000 Russian diplomats operate across the European Union and that at least 40 percent of them are engaged in activities beyond their diplomatic mandate. The figure, if accurate, would mean roughly 800 Russian officials accredited as diplomats are effectively working as intelligence operatives on European soil.

Four demands from Warsaw

Sikorski laid out four specific proposals: restricting Russian diplomats' freedom of movement to the countries where they are accredited, capping the total number of Russian diplomats in the bloc, limiting Schengen visa issuance to Russian citizens, and requiring biometric passes for Russians entering the EU. He framed the measures as a direct response to the pattern of Russian hybrid operations. "Russia is, after all, trying to destroy the EU from within and should not be allowed to take advantage of the privileges of free movement," he said.

The movement restriction is the most consequential of the four. Under current arrangements, a Russian diplomat accredited in one member state can travel freely across the entire Schengen area. Intelligence agencies have long exploited this. Restricting diplomats to their country of accreditation would close a channel that European security services consider well-documented.

Berlin hardens its position

Sikorski's remarks followed a significant shift in German policy. On Tuesday, the German government publicly attributed incursions by explosive-laden drones on its territory to Russia and announced a package of retaliatory diplomatic measures. The attribution marked a departure for Berlin, which has historically been cautious in naming Russia as the source of hostile acts on German soil.

German foreign minister Johann Wadephul, speaking alongside Sikorski and French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot at the Weimar meeting, declined to confirm whether Russia was behind an arson attack on a defence company in Munich. "I can't say much about this publicly. After all, the security of Germany and the security of our allies take priority," he said. "But we are always in a position to investigate these matters. The incident in Leipzig demonstrated this, and we are also always in a position to provide a response."

A week of unattributed attacks

The Munich arson was one of three incidents in Germany this week. Two separate attacks on power facilities in different parts of the country are also under investigation. None of these three has been formally attributed. The drone incursions, by contrast, were attributed within days, a sign that Berlin drew a deliberate line at the use of weaponised drones on German territory.

European security officials have described a sustained Russian hybrid campaign targeting critical infrastructure, defence firms and transport links across the continent. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has identified hybrid threats from Russia as a central security challenge, but individual member states have varied in how far they are willing to go in naming Moscow publicly.

How credible is the 2,000 figure

Sikorski did not explain how Poland arrived at either the total number of Russian diplomats or the 40 percent estimate. There is no central EU register of diplomatic personnel. Each member state manages its own accreditation process, and the data is not systematically shared across the bloc. The Polish figure likely includes embassy staff across all 27 member states, Russia's permanent representation to the EU in Brussels, and its mission to international organisations in Geneva.

The 40 percent claim is harder to assess. If it reflects intelligence assessments shared among allied services, it may carry weight. If it is a political estimate designed to build support for restrictions, it is less reliable. Sikorski's assertion that these officials "work for agencies that also carry out terrorist activities" suggests the figure is drawn from intelligence rather than open sources, but no allied government has corroborated it publicly.

Paris signals caution

Barrot's response was notably measured. France was ready to support further steps "if circumstances require it," he said, a formulation that stops well short of endorsing Sikorski's four-point plan. Paris has expelled Russian intelligence operatives in the past but has also been reluctant to sever all diplomatic channels with Moscow.

The Weimar format, which brings together the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland, has long served as a coordinating mechanism for EU policy towards the east. That the three ministers chose to present a united front on the hybrid threat signals the issue has moved from classified briefings into public diplomatic discourse. Unity on the diagnosis does not, however, guarantee unity on the prescription.

The obstacle of unanimity

Implementing Sikorski's proposals would require agreement across all 27 member states. A cap on Russian diplomats would need to be set at EU level, probably through the Council of the European Union, and each state would need to enforce it. Several countries still maintain full diplomatic relations with Moscow. Hungary has consistently opposed measures it frames as escalation, and other member states have been reluctant to close down back channels.

The EU has already taken some steps. In September 2022, member states suspended the visa facilitation agreement with Russia, making it harder and more expensive for Russian citizens to obtain Schengen visas. Sikorski's demand for biometric passes goes further, creating a separate documentary requirement for Russian nationals that would not apply to other third-country citizens.

What the debate now turns on

The immediate question is whether Germany's attribution of the drone incursions creates enough political momentum for the kind of collective restrictions Sikorski is demanding. Berlin's move was significant on its own, but converting it into an EU-wide cap on Russian diplomatic numbers requires unanimity. The coming foreign affairs council meeting will test whether Wadephul's harder line translates into German pressure on reluctant member states.

People mentioned

Organisations

Council of the European Union · European External Action Service