Radev wins Bulgarian election with 44.7% vote, securing parliamentary majority

Bulgaria's eighth parliamentary election in five years has delivered a result that few pollsters anticipated in its scale. With 98.3% of ballots counted, former president Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria party has secured 44.7% of the vote, translating into roughly 130 seats in the 240-member National Assembly. The centre-left formation stands far ahead of its nearest rivals: Boyko Borissov's centre-right GERB party on 13.4% and the reformist PP-DB coalition on 12.7%. For a country accustomed to fragmented parliaments and short-lived coalitions, the numbers represent a decisive break.

A landslide that caught pollsters off guard

As recently as last Friday, Alpha Research projected Progressive Bulgaria at 34.2% with GERB-UDF at 19.5%, pointing toward another coalition negotiation. The ten-point swing in Radev's favour between final polls and the count suggests a late surge that pollsters missed entirely. Turnout figures, not yet finalised, will clarify whether the shift came from mobilisation of Radev's base, a collapse in support for established parties, or both. What is clear is that the electorate delivered a mandate for single-party government after years of instability that saw cabinets fall to protests, no-confidence votes and parliamentary deadlock.

The election was triggered in December when Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov announced his cabinet's resignation ahead of a looming no-confidence motion. Zhelyazkov's conservative-backed government had been the target of anti-corruption protests in 2025, which Radev publicly supported while still president. He urged voters to turn out in large numbers to counter vote-buying, framing the election as a referendum on what he calls Bulgaria's "oligarchic governance model".

From ceremonial president to executive prime minister

Radev, 62, served nearly a decade as Bulgaria's president before stepping down in January to launch his bid for the premiership. The distinction matters: under Bulgaria's parliamentary system, the president is head of state with a largely ceremonial role, representing national unity and playing a part in foreign policy. Executive power rests with the prime minister and cabinet. As prime minister, Radev will appoint ministers, set the legislative agenda and represent Bulgaria in the European Council and NATO summits, a shift from influence to direct authority that his critics and allies alike are watching closely.

A former air force commander, Radev built his presidential reputation on anti-corruption rhetoric and periodic clashes with governments led by Borissov, who dominated Bulgarian politics for much of the past decade. His transition to party leader and prime ministerial candidate was unconventional but not unprecedented in the region. What distinguishes his platform is the combination of domestic anti-oligarchy messaging with a foreign policy stance that sits uncomfortably with Bulgaria's EU and NATO commitments.

Foreign policy: the Russia question

Radev publicly condemned Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Yet he has consistently opposed providing military support to Kyiv and objected to the ten-year defence pact Bulgaria signed with Ukraine in March. He advocates "practical relations with Russia based on mutual respect and equal treatment" and has called for the resumption of Russian energy imports to Europe, despite EU sanctions and a bloc-wide decision to end all Russian energy imports by 2027. These positions have earned him the "pro-Russian" label from critics across the Bulgarian political spectrum and in Western capitals.

The Kremlin's reaction was immediate. Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin's spokesman, told reporters on Monday: "Of course, we are impressed by the statements made by Mr Radev, who won the election, and by some other European leaders regarding their willingness to resolve problems through pragmatic dialogue." The endorsement from Moscow will do little to reassure allies in Brussels and Washington. Bulgaria's geography, Black Sea coast, land border with Turkey, proximity to the Western Balkans, makes it a strategic NATO flank. Its armed forces participate in alliance missions and host NATO multinational battlegroups. A prime minister questioning the consensus on Russia introduces friction at a moment when the alliance prizes unity.

Radev frames his approach as pragmatic realism. In an interview with Bulgarian journalist Martin Karbovski, he argued: "We are the only member state of the European Union that is both Slavic and Eastern Orthodox. We can be a very important link in this whole mechanism … to restore relations with Russia." The claim to unique bridging capacity echoes arguments made by previous Bulgarian leaders, though rarely with such explicit scepticism of the current EU line. Whether he can translate that self-image into diplomatic influence without alienating partners remains an open question.

Eurosceptic tones on energy and the euro

Radev's critique extends beyond Russia. At a campaign rally last week, he attacked Bulgaria's path to euro adoption: "The coalition-makers introduced the euro in Bulgaria without asking you. And now, when you pay your bills, always remember which politicians promised you that you would be in the 'club of the rich'." Bulgaria joined ERM II, the euro area's waiting room, in 2020 and has targeted 2025 for adoption, though that timeline has slipped. Radev also criticised EU reliance on renewable energy, positioning himself against the European Green Deal's implementation timetable.

Following his victory, he struck a more measured tone: "A strong Bulgaria and a strong Europe need critical thinking and pragmatism. Europe has fallen victim to its own ambition to be a moral leader in a world with new rules." He insisted Bulgaria would "continue on its European path" and signalled willingness to cooperate with pro-European parties on judicial reform. Ursula von der Leyen's congratulatory statement, "Bulgaria is a proud member of the European family and plays an important role in tackling our common challenges", was carefully worded, avoiding endorsement of his policy positions while acknowledging the democratic result.

Domestic mandate: corruption and cost of living

The campaign centred on issues that have fuelled Bulgarian discontent for years: endemic corruption, a judiciary perceived as captured by political interests, and cost-of-living pressures that have outpaced wage growth in one of the EU's poorest member states. Radev's pledge to "remove the corrupt, oligarchic model of governance from political power" resonated with voters exhausted by the revolving door of governments since the April 2021 election that ended Borissov's long dominance. The PP-DB coalition, which emerged from the 2021 anti-corruption protests, secured only 12.7%, a collapse that suggests the reformist vote migrated to Radev or stayed home.

Bulgaria's population of 6.6 million has seen per capita GDP remain the lowest in the EU despite years of convergence funding. The country receives substantial cohesion policy support, and its recovery and resilience plan under the EU's post-pandemic fund totals over €6 billion. Radev's government will control the disbursement of those funds, a lever that gives Brussels practical influence regardless of rhetorical tensions. The European Commission's regular rule-of-law reports have flagged judicial independence and high-level corruption as persistent weaknesses; Radev's mandate to address them is now unambiguous.

Coalition calculations despite a majority

With roughly 130 seats, Progressive Bulgaria holds a working majority, 121 is the threshold. Yet Radev told reporters on Sunday: "We are ready to consider different options so that Bulgaria can have a regular and stable government." The phrasing suggests he may seek a junior partner to broaden legislative legitimacy, insulate against defections, or signal inclusiveness to EU partners. Potential partners are thin on the ground: the PP-DB coalition is ideologically closest but politically diminished; the ethnic Turkish MRF party, often a kingmaker, has not been discussed publicly; smaller formations may clear the 4% threshold once final counts are certified.

The decision will shape the government's early agenda. A single-party cabinet moves faster but bears full ownership of difficult reforms. A coalition spreads risk but introduces veto players. Radev's instinct as president was to use his limited powers, vetoes, appointments, public statements, to constrain governments. As prime minister, he will need to build rather than block. His first test will be the composition of his cabinet and the legislative programme he presents to parliament within the constitutional deadline.

What the result means for Brussels and NATO

European capitals are recalibrating. Bulgaria has been a reliable if quiet supporter of EU consensus on Ukraine sanctions, defence cooperation and enlargement. A prime minister who questions the sanctions architecture, opposes military aid to Ukraine and seeks "pragmatic" engagement with Moscow creates a precedent the EU has managed to avoid since 2022. Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico have tested the limits; Radev adds a third voice, from a country with different historical ties to Russia and a different institutional weight.

NATO's eastern flank commanders will watch whether Bulgarian troop contributions to allied battlegroups continue unchanged, whether intelligence sharing faces new restrictions, and whether Sofia's voice in alliance councils shifts. The defence pact with Ukraine, which Radev opposed, was ratified by the outgoing parliament; withdrawing from it would require a new parliamentary vote and carry diplomatic costs. For now, the alliance's public line is continuity. The practical test comes at the next NATO summit and the next EU foreign affairs council.

The scale of Radev's victory gives him a mandate his predecessors lacked. Whether he uses it to entrench a sovereignist foreign policy or to deliver the anti-corruption reforms voters demanded will define not only his premiership but Bulgaria's place in the European project. The numbers are decisive; the direction is not yet written.