Germany withholds military pledge as 26 nations commit to Ukraine security force

The Paris meeting of the so-called coalition of the willing produced a headline number: twenty-six nations have now put their names to a post-war reassurance force for Ukraine. But the more consequential figure may be the one country that refused to sign the military commitment. Germany, Europe's largest economy and the continent's most consequential military power after France and Britain, told allies it would decide on troop deployment only when the framework is clear, code for waiting to see what the United States puts on the table and whether a ceasefire can be negotiated at all.

The Paris pledge and Germany's caveat

French President Emmanuel Macron hosted the hybrid summit on 4 September, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seated at the table in person. Afterwards Macron declared that 26 countries had "formally committed" to deploy troops to Ukraine, or to be present on the ground, at sea or in the air, once a peace deal is reached. He described the force as a "reassurance force" that "does not seek to wage any war on Russia." Zelenskyy called it the first serious concrete step toward security guarantees in a long time.

The German statement, issued the same evening, struck a different tone. Berlin said it would make a "decisive contribution to strong security guarantees" alongside other Europeans once a negotiated solution is reached. But it added a conditional clause that amounted to a hold: "Germany will decide on a military engagement in due course when the framework is clear. This refers to the kind and extent of a US engagement as well as the result of a negotiation process, amongst other factors." In diplomatic language, that is not a no. It is a not yet, and the conditions attached make clear that Berlin wants to see American skin in the game before committing German soldiers.

Trump's call and the oil lever

The Paris meeting included a phone call with US President Donald Trump. According to a White House official, Trump "emphasized that Europe must stop purchasing Russian oil that is funding the war," claiming Russia received €1.1 billion ($1.28 billion) in fuel sales from the EU in one year. Since most EU members halted crude imports in 2022 and fuel imports in 2023, the figure likely refers to Hungarian and Slovak crude purchases or to refined products made from Russian crude in third countries such as India. The European Commission has proposed legislation to phase out all Russian oil and gas imports by 2028, but that timeline leaves years of revenue flowing to Moscow.

Zelenskyy confirmed Trump's pressure after the call. "President Trump is very dissatisfied that Russia's oil is being purchased by Europe. Among others, there are two countries, we know that these are Hungary and Slovakia," he told reporters. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico had attended a military parade in Beijing days earlier alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin, a visual reminder of the fractures within the EU and NATO on Russia policy. Trump also urged Europeans to "place economic pressure on China for funding Russia's war efforts," according to the White House readout.

The American security umbrella

Germany's hesitation is not new. Since the coalition of the willing formed earlier this year, partly in response to Trump's pro-Russian rhetoric and a turbulent Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy, European leaders have insisted that any security guarantee for Ukraine requires US backing. Macron said after the Paris meeting that US support would be "finalized in the coming days" and that "the United States, as I said, has been involved in every stage of the process." Trump has said he would support Ukraine and provide the coalition with "some backing," but he has ruled out putting US troops on the ground. A White House official put it bluntly: "The president made clear that this is not his war, and the Europeans must step up as well."

That framing puts Berlin in a bind. Germany has been the largest European provider of military aid to Ukraine since 2022, but it has also been the most cautious about escalation risks. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly rejected sending Taurus long-range missiles, citing the danger of direct conflict with Russia. Committing German troops to a post-war force in Ukraine would be a step of a different order, one that would almost certainly require a NATO framework or at least explicit US security guarantees to be politically survivable in Berlin. The German statement's reference to "the kind and extent of a US engagement" is a direct request for clarity on what Washington will actually do.

Russia's rejection and NATO's reply

Moscow has made its position unambiguous. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at an economic summit that Russia "will not discuss deeply unacceptable foreign intervention in Ukraine that undermines security," adding that "these are not security guarantees for Ukraine, but a guarantee of insecurity on the European continent." Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was still seeking international recognition for the four Ukrainian regions Russia illegally annexed in 2022. President Putin, speaking in Beijing, said any direct peace talks with Zelenskyy would take place in Moscow, a condition Kyiv has rejected, noting at least seven other nations had offered to host.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed Russia's veto. "Why are we interested in what Russia thinks about troops in Ukraine? It's a sovereign country. It's not for [Russia] to decide," he said. The alliance has not confirmed that European troops would be deployed after a peace deal, but Rutte's language signalled that the political decision rests with Kyiv and its partners, not the Kremlin. The distinction matters: a reassurance force deployed at Ukraine's invitation is legally distinct from an occupation force, and NATO wants that distinction maintained.

The war continues while diplomats talk

On the same day as the Paris meeting, a Russian missile strike near Chernihiv, 125 kilometres north of Kyiv, killed two Ukrainian deminers working for the Danish Refugee Council and injured eight others. The DRC confirmed its teams were "conducting purely civilian humanitarian activities, working to clear landmines and explosive remnants of war." The UN Mine Action Service estimates that over 20 per cent of Ukraine is contaminated by mines or unexploded ordnance. The strike was a reminder that the fighting has not paused for diplomacy. Dmytro Lubinets, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, called it "yet another grave violation committed by the Russian Federation."

What the 26-country pledge actually means

The coalition of the willing includes mostly European states plus Australia, Canada and Japan. The United States is not a member. The 26 countries that pledged participation have not all specified what they would contribute, troops, ships, aircraft, training, logistics, and several others at the meeting "have not yet taken a position," in Macron's words. The force would only deploy after a ceasefire or peace deal, the terms of which do not exist. Russia has not agreed to negotiate on Ukraine's terms, and Ukraine has not agreed to negotiate on Russia's. Trump said on 4 September that "something is going to happen" but "they are not ready yet." He added he would speak with Putin soon, telling reporters at a White House dinner: "We're having a very good dialogue."

The German position reflects a calculation shared in other capitals: without a credible US backstop, a European force in Ukraine could become a tripwire that draws the continent into direct conflict with Russia. That is why the coalition's statement said the group "contacted Donald Trump by phone, expressing their hope that the United States would continue to contribute substantially to the joint efforts to support Ukraine, to formulate security guarantees." It is also why the group threatened to "increase the pressure of sanctions" if Russia "continues to play for time." Sanctions are the lever Europe can pull unilaterally; troops are not.