Trump grants Ukraine Patriot production licence at Ankara NATO summit

Donald Trump ended the NATO summit in Ankara with a significant policy reversal, announcing that the United States will grant Ukraine a licence to manufacture Patriot air defence systems on its own territory. The move, long resisted by Washington over technology-transfer concerns, represents a concrete gain for Volodymyr Zelenskyy after more than four years of war and years of requests for the production rights.

A summit of sharp contrasts

The two-day gathering in Turkey swung between confrontation and camaraderie. On arrival, Trump renewed his demand that the United States should control Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory, prompting Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to declare that Denmark is "ready to defend every inch of NATO including our own territory." He also singled out Spain as "a terrible partner in NATO" for refusing to join the US military campaign against Iran, threatening trade consequences.

By the closing press conference, however, Trump described a summit defined by "tremendous love" and unity. The shift mirrored his bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy, which he characterised as a departure from previous acrimonious encounters. "We've actually developed a good relationship. It's hard to believe," Trump said, adding that he believed a deal to end the war in Ukraine was on the horizon and that the US would "work on some kind of security package" for Kyiv.

Patriot licence breaks a long taboo

The Patriot announcement is the most tangible military commitment to emerge from Ankara. For years the Pentagon has blocked foreign production of the system, citing the sensitivity of its radar and missile technology. Trump's statement, "We'll give them the right to make Patriots. We'll show them how to do it. I think they can produce them pretty quickly", suggests a willingness to accept industrial diffusion that previous administrations rejected.

Whether Ukrainian industry can actually ramp up production quickly is another matter. Patriots are complex, expensive, and in high global demand; Raytheon, the prime contractor, has struggled to meet existing orders. Ukraine's defence industrial base, while innovative in drones and electronic warfare, has not previously built systems of this sophistication. The licence may prove more valuable as a political signal than as an immediate battlefield multiplier.

Rutte's balancing act and the spending scorecard

Secretary General Mark Rutte has invested enormous personal effort in keeping Trump engaged with the alliance. On Wednesday he praised the US overnight strikes on Iranian targets after Tehran hit three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. "I think what you did last night was absolutely necessary. It was a very strong response, and I'm with you on this," Rutte told Trump. He also sought to channel the president's transactional focus toward defence spending, urging him to "grab the win" on the increases allies have delivered.

The numbers tell a mixed story. At the 2025 summit in The Hague, leaders agreed to a 5% of GDP target, 3.5% on core defence budgets and 1.5% on mobility infrastructure. Figures released by NATO on Tuesday showed that Slovenia, Belgium, Spain and the Czech Republic are still struggling to meet the old 2% benchmark. Only Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Denmark were cited by Rutte as clearly on track for the new goal. The alliance's European members plus Canada have added roughly $1.2 trillion in defence outlays since 2017, a figure Rutte has branded the "Trump Trillion." Much of that procurement is directed toward US contractors, a point the secretary general highlighted at a "big reveal" event in Ankara showcasing deals expected to create thousands of American jobs.

The $80 billion pledge and Ukraine's NATO ambition

The summit declaration committed allies to provide Ukraine with $80 billion to cover defence needs in 2026 and 2027, citing "the long-term threat Russia poses to Euro-Atlantic security." The figure is substantial but spread over two years and across 32 nations; it does not represent new appropriations so much as a coordination of existing national plans.

Zelenskyy used the summit to press again for a NATO membership invitation, arguing that Ukraine's battle-hardened forces would strengthen the alliance. He claimed Ukrainian units are "eliminating" an average of 30,000 Russian troops each month, a figure that cannot be independently verified and which Moscow disputes. Russia remains vehemently opposed to Ukrainian accession, and the communiqué stopped short of offering a timeline, reiterating only that Ukraine's path to membership is "irreversible" without specifying the next step.

Iran deal declared dead; Syria moves toward normalisation

Trump's assessment of the interim Iran agreement was blunt: "For me, I think it's over." The US revoked a licence allowing Iranian oil sales and conducted strikes on Iranian targets after the merchant-ship attacks. Trump added that talks would continue but called them "just a waste of time dealing with them." The fragility of the diplomatic track, never fully formalised, is now exposed.

In a striking sidebar, Trump met Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, the former insurgent leader who oversaw the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Despite al-Sharaa's past affiliation with al-Qaida, Trump has backed his efforts to rebuild Syria and restore ties with the West. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the US will soon remove Syria's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism as part of a year-long normalisation process. "Lifting sanctions on Syria will unlock international trade and investment, give Syria a chance to rebuild, and open up a new chapter for the Syrian people," Rubio said. An executive order in June 2025 had already lifted a number of economic sanctions; the terrorism designation for the Syrian state itself remained until now.

NATO 3.0 and the European security dilemma

Underpinning the summit is the Trump administration's vision of a "NATO 3.0" in which Europe assumes responsibility for conventional defence, including Ukraine, while the United States retains its nuclear umbrella. The Pentagon has launched a six-month review of US force posture in Europe, leaving allies uncertain about the depth of planned troop reductions. Countries on the eastern flank, particularly the Baltics and Poland, worry that a hybrid Russian attack combining conventional forces with cyber and sabotage operations could test the alliance's cohesion while Putin struggles to secure victory in Ukraine.

The spending data underscores the gap between rhetoric and reality. If only four of 32 allies are credibly on track for the 5% target, the burden-sharing Trump demands remains aspirational. European capitals are also wary of the Greenland episode: a US president openly challenging the territorial integrity of a founding NATO member creates a precedent that Moscow could exploit. Frederiksen's firm response was calibrated to signal resolve without rupturing the alliance, but the incident will not be forgotten in Copenhagen or Nuuk.