Ukraine builds steel porcupine as security guarantees fray

Ukraine is preparing to defend itself alone. After three years of full-scale war and shifting Western politics, Kyiv has concluded that security guarantees from allies, whether NATO membership, bilateral treaties or a multinational force, may not hold when tested. The response, articulated by officials from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy down to front-line commanders, is to turn the country into what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called a "steel porcupine": a permanent, heavily armed, technologically advanced military backed by a domestic defence industry capable of sustained production.

The guarantee vacuum

The immediate trigger is the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The US president has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, removing the Article 5 umbrella Kyiv once saw as its best insurance. In its place, Washington and European capitals offer bespoke security agreements and a potential "coalition of the willing", troops on the ground, jets in the air, ships on the Black Sea, with the United States as backstop, as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described in Kyiv on Tuesday. But Ukrainian officials treat these pledges with scepticism. They recall the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which the US, UK and Russia promised to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons, promises that proved hollow when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and invaded in 2022.

"Previously, the vision was primarily centered on protection commitments provided by partners," said Alyona Getmanchuk, head of Ukraine's mission to NATO. "Today, however, there is a clear understanding that the core of any security guarantees must be Ukraine's army and its defense industries." That shift reflects both disappointment with past commitments and growing confidence in Ukraine's own ability to resist. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already signalled Moscow will oppose any security guarantees for Kyiv, dismissing them as protection for a "neo-Nazi" regime.

An army of 800,000: the recruitment crisis

The centrepiece of the porcupine is a standing force of 800,000 soldiers, a number Kyiv has insisted on during peace talks. Reaching and maintaining it will be expensive and organisationally brutal. Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov disclosed last month that 2 million Ukrainians are currently wanted for draft evasion, while 200,000 serving soldiers have gone absent without leave. If a ceasefire arrives, many of those now at the front will seek demobilisation, creating a sudden manpower vacuum.

Fixing this requires more than recruitment drives. Taras Chmut, head of the Come Back Alive volunteer fund and a military analyst, argues Ukraine must improve training at every level, overhaul its organisational and staff structures, and professionalise its officer corps. Kostyantyn Nemichev, deputy commander of the Kraken unmanned systems regiment, put it bluntly: recruits must understand they are trained to fight, and commanders must have leadership skills, otherwise AWOL numbers will not fall. Fedorov has promised digitalisation, anti-corruption measures and a new culture that rewards results, but the gap between decree and delivery remains wide.

Drones, missiles and the production line

While manpower is sorted, technology is already scaling. In 2025 the Ministry of Defence contracted 4.5 million first-person-view (FPV) drones and spent more than 110 billion hryvnia (€2.1 billion) on drone-related procurement, three times the 2024 figure. Ukraine now produces unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, munitions and interceptors in quantities measured in hundreds and thousands. Ihor Fedirko, chief executive of the Ukrainian Council of the Defense Industry, said the priority has shifted from breakthroughs to "batch-to-batch stability and quality control, ensuring that production lines operate without interruptions or degradation in performance."

Missile development is advancing in parallel. Fire Point, a Ukrainian defence company, aimed to produce 200 Flamingo FP-5 cruise missiles a month, each carrying a 1,150-kilogram warhead to a range of 3,000 kilometres, though that target has not yet been met. Some have already struck Russian targets. Separately, Ukraine is co-developing a tactical ballistic missile with a 500-kilometre range and a 200-kilogram warhead with the United Kingdom. Long-range drones already hit refineries and military sites deep inside Russia. The strategic logic is clear: if Moscow attacks again, Kyiv must be able to threaten Russian infrastructure and logistics at scale.

The financing gap

Industrial capacity exists; cash does not. Fedirko estimates Ukrainian defence firms could produce $35 billion worth of equipment annually, yet the government issued contracts for only about $12 billion last year. Up to 60 percent of capacity sits idle. "Without long-term contracts, predictable financing, protected production sites, automation where feasible, and a domestic testing base, serial production cannot be sustained," he said. The problem is structural: wartime budgeting is short-term, unpredictable and vulnerable to political shifts in donor capitals. Kyiv needs multi-year procurement deals to give factories the confidence to invest in tooling, automation and skilled labour.

European money starts to flow

The European Union is beginning to address that gap. The bloc's new defence spending initiatives include the €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons programme, which is open to Ukrainian industries. On top of that, the EU plans a €90 billion loan to Kyiv, two-thirds of which is earmarked for defence. These sums are significant but they are loans, not grants, and they come with conditions. Ukraine also hopes to export weapons to earn hard currency, though current wartime export controls make that difficult. The combination of EU credit, domestic procurement reform and export potential could close the financing gap, if the legal and administrative frameworks move as fast as the production lines.

Air power: the Gripen question

A visible symbol of the new force would be a modern fighter fleet. Kyiv has sketched a deal to acquire up to 150 Swedish-produced Saab JAS-39E Gripen fighters, a platform that can operate from dispersed bases and integrate with NATO systems. Deliveries would take years and depend on Swedish export licences, US engine approvals and, crucially, sustained funding. But the ambition signals intent: Ukraine wants an air force that can contest Russian air superiority and strike deep without relying on allied tankers or AWACS.