A study presented at the Cernobbio Forum on Lake Como on 5 September 2026 makes an uncomfortable observation: Europe's push to decarbonise transport has left the continent more dependent on imported energy, imported raw materials and imported technology, not less. The report, produced by the consultancy TEHA Group together with Eni, argues that biofuels from renewable feedstocks are an immediately available way to cut emissions without surrendering more industrial capacity.

The case for biofuels as industrial policy

The study identifies two types of biofuel as central: Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil (HVO), which can replace diesel in most existing engines, and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which is the only near-term decarbonisation option for aviation. Both can be distributed through existing fuel infrastructure. Both are already in production. The argument is not that biofuels replace electrification, but that they complement it. Valerio De Molli, Managing Partner and CEO of TEHA Group, was blunt: "Europe must avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. A transition that replaces one dependency with another does not strengthen the continent, it merely shifts its vulnerability."

Stefano Ballista, Chief Executive Officer of Enilive, Eni's mobility and biofuel division, said biofuels represent "an immediately available solution to reduce emissions from the transport sector along the entire value chain, since they are widely available, can be distributed through existing infrastructure and can be used in most of the diesel engines currently on the road."

A continent losing industrial capacity

The study's most striking passages are not about biofuels at all. They catalogue the industrial capacity Europe has already ceded. Since 2009, Europe has lost 21% of its refining production capacity. The continent now imports significant volumes of diesel and jet fuel. The study estimates this contraction has cost between 90,000 and 130,000 skilled jobs.

The automotive sector tells a similar story. Imports of finished vehicles into the EU more than tripled between 2015 and 2025, reaching approximately €166 billion. The estimated loss of value added for the sector in the EU runs to between €30 billion and €60 billion per year. In critical raw materials, the concentration is even sharper: 100% of the refined heavy rare earths used in the Union come from China, according to the report.

The electricity demand squeeze

The study adds a less discussed dimension to the debate. The development of digital technologies and artificial intelligence is projected to increase electricity demand from EU data centres from 96 TWh in 2024 to 236 TWh in 2035. If electrification of road transport accelerates in parallel, the competition for electricity supply intensifies. The authors argue that a technology-neutral approach to mobility, using biofuels where they are most effective, would free electricity for sectors where electrification genuinely has no alternative.

This is an argument that will not please everyone. The European Commission's regulatory framework has tended to treat biofuels with suspicion, partly because of concerns about land use and food competition, partly because of past fraud in the biofuels certification chain. The study says it has identified what it calls "false myths" in the European debate, claiming some widespread assumptions are not supported by scientific evidence, though the detailed findings were not fully set out in the material released at Cernobbio.

Hard-to-abate sectors where electrification stalls

The practical case for biofuels is strongest in sectors where batteries are heavy, expensive or simply unsuitable. Heavy road transport, aviation and maritime shipping cannot realistically electrify in the near term. SAF is the only commercially available route to lowering aviation emissions before hydrogen or electric aircraft become viable. HVO works in existing diesel trucks and ships without engine modification.

Eni has invested substantially in this thesis. Its Enilive subsidiary operates biorefineries including the converted facility at Porto Marghera near Venice, which processes renewable feedstocks into HVO. The company's commercial interest is transparent: Eni stands to benefit from policies that favour biofuels. That does not make the argument wrong, but it does mean the numbers deserve particular scrutiny.

What the study wants from policymakers

The report calls for a shift in European policy from what its authors describe as a predominantly regulatory and restrictive approach to a more pragmatic and industrial one. It argues that favouring only certain technologies risks creating structural vulnerabilities in European industry and security. The specific policy proposals were outlined at the Cernobbio session, though the published material released on 5 September did not include the full list.

The underlying tension is real. The European Green Deal set ambitious decarbonisation targets, but the geopolitical disruptions since 2020 have exposed how quickly supply chains can be weaponised. Europe's dependence on Russian fossil fuels was the first lesson. Dependence on Chinese rare earths and battery components may be the next.

People mentioned

  • Valerio De Molli

    Managing Partner and CEO, TEHA Group

  • Stefano Ballista

    Chief Executive Officer, Enilive

Organisations

TEHA Group · Eni · Enilive · European Union