Climate and AI dominate von der Leyen's State of the Union preparation

Ursula von der Leyen's team is putting the finishing touches on a speech that will define the European Commission's political direction for the year ahead. Climate change and artificial intelligence will take centre stage in the State of the Union address on September 16, according to officials briefed on the preparation process.

The priorities emerged from a closed-door meeting in Jodoigne, Wallonia, where Bjoern Seibert, head of cabinet to the Commission president, met with the chiefs of staff from all 27 member states' commissioners. These post-summer gatherings are routine, but this year's carried unusual weight. The Commission is navigating competing pressures from industry lobbyists demanding slower green transitions and environmental groups pushing for faster action.

What makes this speech particularly consequential is its timing. Von der Leyen is in the final phase of her second term, and the address will signal which policy files receive political backing before the 2029 European Parliament elections begin to shape thinking. A single line in the speech can elevate a dormant proposal into an urgent priority, which explains why commissioners fought hard for space.

Climate policy under dual pressure

The decision to emphasise climate stems from visible necessity rather than political convenience. This summer's floods and wildfires across southern and central Europe caused billions in damage and displaced thousands. The European Environment Agency has documented increasing frequency of extreme weather events, making climate adaptation impossible to ignore.

Yet the Commission faces a difficult balancing act. Von der Leyen's team must defend the 2040 emissions-cutting target while responding to mounting pressure from national capitals and industrial sectors concerned about competitiveness. Germany's manufacturing sector has been particularly vocal about energy costs, while France has pushed for nuclear power to receive greater recognition in the green transition framework.

The 2040 target itself remains contentious. The Commission proposed an interim goal of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90 per cent compared to 1990 levels, but member states have yet to agree on the binding nature of this commitment. Poland and Hungary have expressed reservations, citing economic transformation costs in coal-dependent regions.

Artificial intelligence and employment concerns

The speech will also address artificial intelligence's impact on European labour markets, though the Commission is still gathering reliable data. Von der Leyen's team has asked DG Connect, the directorate-general responsible for digital policy, to provide fresh statistics on jobs likely to be lost and created as AI adoption spreads across industries.

This request reveals uncertainty within the Commission about AI's net employment effect. Some economic models suggest automation will displace routine administrative and manufacturing roles while creating demand for technical specialists. Others argue the transition period could see significant disruption in sectors from customer service to legal documentation.

The European Union has already established regulatory frameworks through the AI Act, which came into force in 2024, but employment policy remains largely at national level. This creates tension between Brussels' regulatory ambitions and member states' control over labour market interventions. Von der Leyen's speech may signal whether the Commission intends to propose EU-wide retraining programmes or leave adaptation to national governments.

Migration returns to the agenda

Seibert raised migration as a likely topic, specifically referencing the crisis in Ceuta, the Spanish autonomous city on the North African coast. Periodic surges in border crossings have tested the EU's external border management system and exposed divisions between member states on burden-sharing.

The Commission is expected to propose revamping the mandate and operations of Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency. The agency has faced criticism over human rights allegations in previous years, leading to reforms that some member states consider insufficient while rights groups view as inadequate.

Migration politics remain toxic across much of Europe. Right-wing parties in Italy, France and Germany have gained electoral support by emphasising border control, while southern member states argue they bear disproportionate responsibility for initial reception. Any Commission proposal will need to navigate these competing pressures without triggering a political revolt in national capitals.

Social policy anniversary approaches

The speech is expected to reference social policy around the tenth anniversary of the European Pillar of Social Rights in 2027. This framework established 20 principles covering equal opportunities, fair working conditions and social protection across the Union.

Anniversaries create natural opportunities for policy announcements, but the substance matters more than the symbolism. Trade unions have argued that implementation of the Pillar's principles remains uneven, with southern and eastern member states lagging on minimum wage standards and collective bargaining coverage. The Commission may use the speech to announce new enforcement mechanisms or additional funding for social convergence.

Ukraine and enlargement also remain on the draft agenda, though these topics have yet to be finalised. The war continues to shape European security thinking, while accession negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia create both opportunities and complications for the Union's institutional architecture.

The lobbying process behind the scenes

The Jodoigne meeting represented the second major opportunity for commissioners to secure mentions in the speech. Their cabinets had already submitted two to three page pitches to Seibert outlining their departments' priorities. The Commission's directorates-general also submitted documents proposing topics for inclusion.

This internal competition reveals how the Commission operates in practice. Despite the president's formal authority, policy priorities emerge through negotiation among commissioners, each representing different political families and national interests. A climate commissioner from Germany may prioritise different aspects of environmental policy than one from Poland or Greece.

Commissioners will get another opportunity to lobby von der Leyen at the traditional College seminar in Tervuren, outside Brussels, the week following the Jodoigne meeting. This gathering marks the start of the new political season after the summer recess. One official described it as the last chance for commissioners to catch the president's attention before the speech text is locked.

What the speech cannot cover

With limited room in one of Brussels' most closely watched annual addresses, not every priority will make the cut. The Commission handles dozens of legislative files simultaneously, from digital services regulation to pharmaceutical reforms. Some will be mentioned only in passing, others not at all.

This selectivity matters because omissions signal deprioritisation as clearly as inclusions signal commitment. Industry groups monitor the speech for hints about regulatory intensity, while member states watch for indications of where enforcement will tighten. A missing reference to financial services reform, for example, would suggest the Commission does not intend to advance banking union proposals in the coming year.

The Commission did not respond to requests for comment on the speech content before publication. This silence is standard practice for State of the Union preparations, where leaks are common but official confirmation comes only when the text is finalised.