Dutch government pledges 5% GDP defence spending to shore up NATO

The Netherlands has positioned itself as one of the few European countries willing to match rhetoric with money on defence. The new minority government formed by Rob Jetten's D66, the liberal VVD and the Christian Democratic Appeal has committed to meeting NATO's new target of 5% of GDP for national security spending, a figure that would roughly double the current $28 billion the country allocates each year.

For a nation of 18 million people, the pledge is striking. The Netherlands already spends more on defence than all but five of the European Union's NATO members, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain, each of which has a population at least twice as large. The previous government had aimed to grow the armed forces from 70,000 personnel to 100,000 by 2030, with a longer-term ambition of perhaps 200,000. The new coalition intends to keep that trajectory.

A realist tone from The Hague

David van Weel, the Foreign Minister and a VVD veteran who worked alongside Mark Rutte during the latter's long premiership, set out the government's worldview in an interview with POLITICO this week. His language was deliberately unromantic. "You will have a government that will look at the world as it is and not as it wishes it to be," he said. "Therefore you will see a government that will still consider NATO to be the cornerstone of our collective security." At the same time, he insisted the EU must become "stronger" both economically and militarily.

The dual track, reinforcing NATO while building European capacity, is not new in Dutch foreign policy, but the urgency has shifted. Three weeks of turbulence in the transatlantic relationship, triggered by Donald Trump's renewed demands over Greenland, have forced European capitals to confront the possibility that American protection may no longer be reliable. Van Weel did not mince words: "I think that is undeniable," he said of the damage to trust. "Let's hope we don't see Greenland back on the menu."

Greenland as a distraction from Ukraine

Beyond the breach of trust, Van Weel regards the Greenland episode as a strategic diversion. "I really regret that this has taken up so much time and effort of so many people in these times when the whole world seems to be on fire," he said. The Foreign Minister's priority remains Ukraine, where he believes a peace deal may be close. He described hearing "promising things" from the Ukrainian side but identified Vladimir Putin as the principal obstacle. "We do need the U.S. president to put pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table to finish this conflict," he said. "It really is time for peace."

That position, needing American leverage over Moscow while simultaneously preparing for a world where American commitment wavers, captures the central tension in European security thinking. Van Weel articulated it in three parts: Europe relies heavily on the United States today; it must decrease that reliance; and a more balanced transatlantic bond is in everyone's interest.

Rutte's warning and the European response

Mark Rutte, now NATO Secretary General, injected his own bluntness into the debate on 26 January when he told EU politicians they were "dreaming" if they believed Europe could defend itself without American help. The remark drew sharp criticism from those who argue Rutte is the one deluded if he thinks Trump can be relied upon. Van Weel, who knows Rutte well, declined to take sides. "Van Weel thinks both sides have a point," the interview noted, summarising his view that the alliance remains indispensable but European autonomy must grow.

The friction exposes a structural problem. NATO's European members have spent decades underinvesting in the enablers, air transport, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, air defence, that the United States provides at scale. Closing those gaps requires not just money but coordinated procurement, standardised equipment and a willingness to cede national sovereignty over force design. The Netherlands, with its professional military and strong defence industry, is better placed than most to contribute, but it cannot fill the gaps alone.

Towards a European Security Council

One concrete idea Van Weel floated was a European Security Council that would include non-EU countries such as the United Kingdom. "The EU was built from a premise of economic cooperation in order to prevent war and therefore never had a security-oriented structure or aim," he said. "The world has changed. The EU needs to play a role in the security realm and therefore you might need to look at structures that we don't have at the moment."

The suggestion is notable because it sidesteps the EU's common security and defence policy, which has struggled to produce operational results, and instead proposes a more flexible format. Including the UK would bring Europe's most capable military power into the room, something the EU's current structures make difficult. Whether such a council would have decision-making authority or merely coordinate positions remains undefined.

The coalition arithmetic

Jetten's government is a minority coalition, dependent on issue-by-issue support from other parties in the Tweede Kamer. That makes the defence commitment politically fragile. The VVD and CDA are traditionally hawkish on defence; D66 has been more sceptical of large military budgets. Holding the three together on a multi-year spending ramp that will inevitably compete with healthcare, housing and the energy transition will require constant negotiation. Van Weel's own position is not guaranteed, he said he is open to staying on but Jetten has not yet finalised his cabinet.

The previous government's defence plans were already ambitious by Dutch standards. The 2024 Defence White Paper set out a path to 2% of GDP by 2028, with a further increase to 2.5% thereafter. The new 5% target, agreed at the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, represents a step change. Officials in The Hague privately acknowledge that reaching it will require not just procurement but a reform of the defence industrial base, faster export licensing and a solution to the personnel shortage that has left naval ships docked for want of crews.

Industrial and personnel constraints

Money is the easiest part. The Dutch defence industry, centred on companies such as Damen Naval, Thales Netherlands and Airbus Defence and Space Netherlands, can absorb increased orders, but the supply chain depends on specialised labour that is already scarce. The technical workforce shortage affects the entire North Sea economy, from offshore wind to shipbuilding. The armed forces themselves face a recruitment and retention crisis; the Royal Netherlands Navy has repeatedly been unable to deploy frigates because of insufficient trained personnel.

The government's response includes a renewed focus on reservists, cyber reservists and the potential reintroduction of a form of national service, though no decision has been taken. Van Weel argued that even without NATO or American pressure, the investment is necessary for Dutch interests. "Even if you don't want to do it for NATO, even if you don't want to do it to please the U.S., you should do it for your own interests," he said. "And that's why I am happy that our own coalition will indeed ensure that we reach the targets for defence spending."

The Ukraine peace calculation

Van Weel's optimism on a Ukraine settlement is at odds with most public assessments, which see Putin in no hurry to negotiate while his forces make incremental gains. The Foreign Minister's argument is that Trump's unpredictability could be leveraged to force Russia to the table. That is a high-stakes gamble. If Trump instead cuts a deal with Putin that freezes the conflict on Russian terms, European countries that have invested heavily in Ukraine's defence, the Netherlands among them, will face a choice between accepting an outcome they opposed or continuing support without American backing.

The Netherlands has been a consistent supplier of artillery ammunition, F-16 components and training to Ukraine. It hosts the international coordination centre for F-16 training at Woensdrecht air base. A peace deal that limits Ukraine's ability to rearm would directly affect Dutch defence planning, which assumes a long-term requirement to deter Russia on NATO's eastern flank.