European leaders meet in Berlin to show defence unity before Ankara NATO summit

Five European leaders gathered in Berlin on Wednesday for a dinner hosted by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the last scheduled coordination meeting before the NATO summit in Ankara on 7-8 July. The gathering brought together the heads of government from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland, a grouping that spans the EU's largest economies, its only nuclear powers and NATO's eastern flank.

A unity display shadowed by recent fractures

The joint statement issued after the meeting affirmed an "unwavering commitment to Euro-Atlantic security and the transatlantic bond." Yet the very fact that Merz convened the session underscores how much ground has been lost since the last NATO summit in Washington. The Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS), once held up as the centrepiece of European strategic autonomy, has been formally abandoned after years of wrangling over workshare, intellectual property and operational requirements. The collapse of that programme, confirmed in recent weeks, leaves a gaping hole in the continent's attempt to field a next-generation fighter without US involvement.

Merz acknowledged the difficulty indirectly. "Unilateral national actions in our defence policy would be a mistake," he told reporters before the dinner, a line clearly aimed at capitals tempted to go it alone on procurement or Ukraine policy. He also said he would brief both Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the Berlin discussions, signalling that the meeting was as much about managing external expectations as resolving internal ones.

Washington's pressure campaign

The US administration has made no secret of its frustration. In recent months Washington has criticised European allies for declining to back the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has told NATO headquarters that the Pentagon will review its force posture in Europe. The threat of a troop drawdown, long discussed in think-tank circles, has moved into official rhetoric. For European capitals, the choice is stark: either demonstrate credible burden-sharing or risk a hollowed-out security guarantee.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travelled to the White House earlier this month in an attempt to calm tensions. His mission, according to alliance officials, was to present a unified European spending plan that meets the 2% of GDP benchmark while offering concrete capabilities, air defence, long-range strike, enablers, that the US military has long said are missing. Whether the Berlin five can deliver that plan in Ankara remains the central question.

The E3 format under fire

Tensions among Europeans have also sharpened. The so-called E3, Germany, France and the UK, has been the default coordination mechanism for Ukraine policy since the 2022 invasion. But Rome and Warsaw have grown increasingly vocal in arguing that the format excludes key contributors. Poland, which hosts the logistics hub for Western weapons shipments and fields the largest land army on the eastern flank, sees itself as indispensable. Italy, a major naval power and host of NATO's southern command in Naples, makes a similar case.

Merz has defended the E3 as a tool for speed, not exclusion. In Berlin he stressed the aim of "reinforcing a joint approach, including a strong partnership with the United States." But the presence of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the same table suggests the format is being stretched. Whether the expanded group can agree on security guarantees for Ukraine, the centrepiece of the Ankara agenda, will test that proposition.

Starmer's farewell and the Brexit shadow

The dinner doubled as a valedictory for Keir Starmer, who announced on Monday that he would step down as prime minister after losing the confidence of his parliamentary party. Starmer's tenure was defined by an effort to reset UK-EU relations after a decade of Brexit acrimony. He negotiated a veterinary agreement, a security-of-supply arrangement for defence procurement and a youth mobility scheme, modest steps that nonetheless restored a working rhythm with Paris and Berlin.

"We have become one in many ways again," Tusk said in his tribute. "Thanks to your work, it was possible to forget about Brexit for a moment. I will remember that for a long time." The warmth was genuine, but it also highlighted how much the UK's departure still shapes European defence thinking. British defence industrial capacity, particularly in submarines, missiles and satellite communications, remains critical to any credible European pillar, yet the UK sits outside EU defence structures such as the European Defence Fund and PESCO.

What Ankara must deliver

The July summit in Ankara is shaping up as a moment of truth. NATO's new strategic concept, adopted in 2022, called for a "stronger European pillar" but left the mechanics vague. Since then, the war in Ukraine has consumed alliance bandwidth, while the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific has accelerated. European leaders arrive in Turkey with three concrete demands on the table: a binding commitment to raise the European defence investment pledge from 2% to 2.5% of GDP by 2030; a NATO-backed framework for long-term security assistance to Ukraine that survives a potential US withdrawal; and a command-and-control structure that allows European forces to operate autonomously when the US chooses not to engage.

Erdogan, as host, will extract his own price. Turkey has blocked Swedish and Finnish accession in the past, leveraged its control of the Bosporus straits under the Montreux Convention, and maintains a delicate balance between NATO and its independent relations with Moscow. Ankara's own defence industry, notably the Bayraktar drone family and the TF-X fighter programme, gives it industrial leverage that few other European allies possess.

Merz's closing remark, "We are travelling this path together", was intended as a statement of resolve. In the corridors of the Chancellery, officials privately admit the path has never been more uncertain. The Ankara summit will not solve the structural problems laid bare in Berlin, but it will force each capital to show whether it is prepared to pay the political price for a defence policy that matches its rhetoric.