Moldova's pro-EU party wins parliamentary majority despite Russian interference claims

Moldova's ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has won a parliamentary majority with 50.2% of the vote, according to final results published by the Central Electoral Commission on Monday. The pro-Russia Patriotic Bloc finished a distant second with 24.18%. The outcome gives President Maia Sandu's party an estimated 55 seats in the 101-member legislature, down from the 63 it held after the 2021 snap election but sufficient to govern alone.

A vote framed as a geopolitical choice

The election was presented by both sides as a binary decision between European integration and a return to Moscow's orbit. Sandu, who won a second presidential term in November 2024, campaigned on the progress made since Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022. Accession negotiations formally opened in June 2024, and the government has set a target date of 2028 for membership. The Patriotic Bloc, led by former president Igor Dodon and backed by the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, argued that EU integration would destroy Moldova's traditional ties with Russia and lead to economic ruin.

Turnout was 51.9%, with 1.59 million citizens casting ballots. A notable feature was the diaspora vote: 276,000 Moldovans voted abroad, overwhelmingly for PAS. In 2021, the diaspora provided the margin that gave Sandu her presidential victory and the party its parliamentary supermajority. This time, the domestic vote was closer, reflecting fatigue with the pace of reform and the impact of inflation on living standards.

Accusations of interference from both sides

Sandu accused Russia of "massive interference" after casting her ballot on Sunday, citing vote-buying schemes, disinformation campaigns and the channelling of illicit funds to pro-Russia parties. The claim is consistent with findings from Moldova's intelligence services, which have documented Russian hybrid operations since the invasion of Ukraine. Igor Grosu, the PAS leader, was more explicit: "The Russian Federation threw into battle everything it had that was most vile, mountains of money, mountains of lies, mountains of illegalities."

Moscow rejected the allegations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that "some political forces" in Moldova had alleged violations and that Moldovans should "sort this out" themselves. The Russian foreign ministry went further, claiming that Moldovan authorities had effectively disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of citizens living in Russia by providing only two polling stations, one in Moscow, one in St Petersburg, for an estimated diaspora of 300,000 to 500,000. In 2021, 17 stations operated across Russia.

The disqualified parties and the observer verdict

Two small pro-Russia parties, the Chance Party and the Victory bloc, were barred from the ballot weeks before the election after the Central Electoral Commission found evidence of illegal financing linked to Shor, who was convicted in absentia of fraud and money laundering in 2023. The decision was upheld by the Constitutional Court. Paula Cardoso, an observer with the European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations, said the timing limited the candidates' rights to "seek effective remedy" but noted that electoral authorities "otherwise managed technical preparations of these elections professionally and efficiently." The network's overall assessment was that voting was "competitive and offered citizens a clear choice."

The disqualification removed perhaps 5-7% of the potential pro-Russia vote from the ballot, a factor that Dodon's bloc has seized on to delegitimise the result. On Monday, a few hundred opposition supporters gathered outside parliament in Chișinău chanting "Freedom" and claiming the results were falsified. Police said they had information that some participants had been promised cash to attend. The protest dispersed within hours without incident.

EU leaders welcome the result but the path remains steep

The reaction from European capitals was swift and coordinated. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk issued a joint statement commending "the Moldovan society and authorities for the peaceful conduct of the election, despite unprecedented interference by Russia, including with vote-buying schemes and disinformation." Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, wrote on X that Moldova had chosen "Europe. Democracy. Freedom" and promised: "Our door is open. And we will stand with you every step of the way." European Parliament President Roberta Metsola declared: "The future of Moldova is in Europe!"

The enthusiasm in Brussels is genuine but tempered by experience. Moldova has completed the first cluster of negotiation chapters, fundamentals including judiciary reform and anti-corruption, but the remaining 32 chapters cover areas where the country's administrative capacity is thin: competition policy, agriculture, food safety, customs union. The 2028 target is ambitious. Romania and Bulgaria took roughly a decade from opening negotiations to accession; Croatia took eight years. Moldova's GDP per capita, at roughly $6,500, is the lowest of any current candidate.

A narrower majority changes the domestic calculus

The drop from 63 to 55 seats matters. In the previous parliament, PAS could pass constitutional amendments and appoint judges to the Constitutional Court without opposition votes. Now it needs at least six votes from outside its ranks for a two-thirds majority. That gives leverage to smaller pro-EU groupings, the Liberal Democrats, the Dignity and Truth Platform, and potentially to independent deputies. Sandu has signalled she will seek cross-party consensus on justice reform and the negotiation chapters, but the opposition has shown little appetite for cooperation.

Economic pressures are mounting. Inflation peaked at 34% in late 2022 and has fallen to single digits, but real wages have only recently returned to pre-war levels. The budget deficit is projected at 4.5% of GDP in 2025, financed partly by EU macro-financial assistance and World Bank loans. The government has pledged to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, a commitment that will compete with the investment needed for EU alignment. Remittances, which account for roughly 15% of GDP, have held up but could soften if European economies slow.

Transnistria and the unresolved security question

The election did not take place in Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region east of the Dniester where Moscow stations roughly 1,500 troops and ammunition depots. The region's authorities blocked Moldovan polling stations, as they have in every election since 2001. Residents who wished to vote had to cross into government-controlled territory; roughly 12,000 did so. The region's status remains the single biggest obstacle to EU accession. The EU has made clear that resolution of the conflict, through reintegration on Moldovan terms, is a prerequisite for membership, but neither Brussels nor Chișinău has a credible plan to achieve it while Russian forces remain.

Zelenskyy's comment that Russia "failed to destabilize Moldova even after spending huge, huge resources" reflects Kyiv's interest in a stable western flank. Ukraine has provided intelligence on Russian hybrid operations in Moldova and coordinates on energy security since the two countries synchronised their electricity grids with the European network in 2022. A Moldovan pivot back to Russia would have complicated Ukraine's own EU path and its defence against Russian advances in the south.