Moldova's pro-EU party wins parliamentary majority despite Russian interference campaign

Moldova's ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured a decisive parliamentary majority in Sunday's election, taking 50.16% of the vote and roughly 55 of the 101 seats in a result that defied pre-election polling and came amid what authorities describe as a full-spectrum Russian hybrid operation.

The pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), an alliance led by former president Igor Dodon, finished a distant second with 24.19% and 26 seats. Two parties within the bloc, Heart of Moldova and Moldova Mare, were barred from the ballot days before the vote over allegations of illicit Russian financing and vote buying. The pro-EU Alternative Party took third place with 7.97% and eight seats, while two newcomers, Our Party and Democracy at Home, crossed the threshold with just over 6% and 5% respectively, earning six seats each.

Turnout rises and the diaspora delivers

Some 1.6 million Moldovans voted, a turnout of 52.2% of eligible voters, higher than in previous parliamentary elections. The most striking feature was the diaspora's weight: 288,000 ballots, or 17.5% of the total, were cast abroad, mostly in Europe and the United States. Polling stations in Italy, Romania, Spain and the US reported bomb scares, yet the overseas vote held firm. The election agency has not published a breakdown of how the diaspora voted, but PAS leaders and analysts agree it leaned heavily pro-European.

Voters in the breakaway region of Transnistria, where many hold dual Russian citizenship, faced additional hurdles. They were required to travel 20 kilometres to polling stations outside the enclave, and media reported long queues at Moldovan checkpoints on election morning. Some pro-Russian voters said they were turned between stations because of bomb threats.

A hybrid campaign: cash, bots and banned parties

In the months before the vote, Moldovan authorities repeatedly accused Moscow of conducting a "hybrid war" to tilt the outcome. The allegations are specific: a widespread voter-buying operation distributing cash for anti-European votes; cyberattacks on government networks; and a flood of online disinformation powered by artificial intelligence. Researchers found bots posting AI-generated content in comment sections and on fake websites to disparage the EU and PAS.

Google confirmed the scale of the online operation. In a statement last week, the company said it had terminated more than 1,000 YouTube channels since June 2024 for participating in coordinated influence operations targeting Moldova. Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, told Al Jazeera: "There is very little doubt in my mind and quite convincing evidence that Russia has done basically two things: Tried to bribe Moldovans literally with cash to vote for anti-European parties, and it has exerted massive campaigns of disinformation about what a pro-European choice would mean."

Moscow denies meddling. But the pattern fits a broader trajectory. In October 2024, a referendum on EU membership passed with just over 50% voting yes, a margin President Sandu attributed to "dirty interference" from Russia. Last November, Romania annulled its presidential election over similar allegations of Russian interference; a rerun in May 2025 produced a pro-EU winner.

Security operations and arrested plotters

The physical threat was not abstract. In the week before the election, Moldovan police arrested 74 people during 250 raids targeting groups allegedly linked to Russian plans to instigate riots. Authorities said the suspects, aged 19 to 49, had "systematically travelled" to Serbia for training in "disorder and destabilisation". On Sunday, two brothers and a third man were detained in Chișinău with flammable materials, suspected of planning election-day violence. At least three people were arrested in total for threatening violence, and multiple bomb scares were reported at polling stations both inside Moldova and abroad.

The EU path: candidate status and a 2028 target

EU accession was the single dominant issue. Moldova applied for membership days after Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the European Commission granted candidate status in June 2022, conditional on reforms to democracy, human and minority rights, and the rule of law. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared at the time that Moldova's future lay in the EU. President Sandu has set a personal target of membership by 2028, when her term expires. The PAS majority should allow the government to push through the required legislative changes without relying on pro-Russian votes.

The security dimension is equally stark. Moldova borders Ukraine and hosts the Russian-backed Transnistrian enclave, where roughly 1,500 Russian troops are stationed. The enclave's leadership has repeatedly requested annexation by Russia. For Chișinău, EU membership, and the security guarantees that come with it, as neighbour Romania enjoys through both the EU and NATO, is existential.

Reactions: victory speeches and a rejected result

Speaking at PAS headquarters on Monday, Igor Grosu framed the win as a popular triumph over a ruthless adversary. "It was not only PAS that won these elections, it was the people who won," he said. "The Russian Federation threw into battle everything it had that was most vile, mountains of money, mountains of lies, mountains of illegalities. It used criminals to try to turn our entire country into a haven for crime. It filled everything with hatred."

Prime Minister Dorin Recean, appointed by Sandu in February 2023 and expected to stay in post, struck a similar note: "Moldovans demonstrated that their freedom is priceless and their freedom cannot be bought, their freedom cannot be influenced by Russia's propaganda and scaremongering. This is a huge win for the people of Moldova, considering the fully-fledged hybrid war that Russia waged in Moldova. The major task right now is to bring back the society together, because what Russia achieved is to produce a lot of tension and division in society."

Dodon rejected the outcome before final results were even declared. In a televised address Sunday night, he claimed his bloc had won, demanded the government resign, and called supporters to the streets. "We will not allow destabilisation," he said. "The citizens have voted. Their vote must be respected even if you don't like it." On Monday, dozens of protesters gathered outside parliament. It remains unclear whether the BEP will mount a legal challenge.

A divided society and the reform agenda

The scale of the PAS victory, a ten-point swing from the tight referendum result ten months ago, suggests the interference operation may have backfired, mobilising pro-European voters at home and abroad. But Recean's warning about societal division is grounded. Nearly a quarter of the electorate backed a bloc openly aligned with Moscow, and the two new parliamentary parties, Our Party and Democracy at Home, draw on populist and conservative currents that do not map neatly onto the East-West binary.

The government now faces a dense reform calendar. The European Parliament and Commission will monitor progress on judicial independence, anti-corruption measures, and media freedom, areas where Moldova has historically struggled. The presence of six Our Party and six Democracy at Home deputies adds unpredictable voices to a parliament that, until Sunday, PAS controlled outright. Whether they become constructive partners or obstructionists will shape the pace of accession.