Moldova votes under shadow of unprecedented Russian interference campaign

Moldova goes to the polls on Sunday for a parliamentary election that the governing Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has framed as a choice between continuing the country's path toward European Union membership and a return to Moscow's orbit. The campaign has been dominated not by policy debate but by what police and prosecutors describe as the most sophisticated foreign interference operation any European state has faced in recent memory.

The scale of the interference operation

In the final days before the vote, the General Police Inspectorate disclosed evidence of vote-buying, disinformation networks and a foiled plot to foment violent unrest. Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu said Russia invested more than $100 million in last year's presidential election, when pro-Russian forces came close to winning. This year the figure has more than tripled to over $300 million, a sum the prime minister, Dorin Recean, equated to more than 1 per cent of Moldova's gross domestic product.

The mechanics have evolved. Where cash once moved in bags, police say cryptocurrency now funds a sprawling influence operation. A BBC investigation linked the network to Ilan Shor, a fugitive oligarch convicted in absentia for his role in the 2014 bank fraud that drained $1 billion from Moldova's financial system. Shor, who lives in Moscow, is alleged to have paid Moldovan citizens to produce and amplify anti-PAS content across social media. The Russian embassy in London denied involvement and countered that the EU was the real interferer.

Most alarming for authorities was the discovery of a paramilitary strand. More than 100 men, described by Cernăuțeanu as mainly athletic, were detained after returning from Serbia where they had received training in firearms, breaking police lines and seizing weapons. Two were linked to the political structure of Igor Dodon, the former president and Socialist Party candidate. Dodon said his party was still checking its records. On Friday, Serbian police announced the arrest of two men suspected of organising the training for up to 170 participants. Moldovan investigators believe the GRU, Russia's military intelligence service, was involved.

A referendum on Europe in all but name

The election is, in effect, a verdict on the strategic turn Moldova took after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In June 2024, the European Council opened accession negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine simultaneously, a milestone that would have been unthinkable before the war. President Maia Sandu, who founded PAS, has staked her presidency on the European trajectory. Her party's bright yellow flyers promise EU membership within four years and a bounty of European investment. The reverse side carries a darker message: photographs of Ukrainian homes destroyed by war and the slogan "Say no to Putin's candidates" alongside the faces of opposition leaders.

Recean defended the rhetoric. "This is exactly the risk right now here in Moldova," he said at the final PAS rally in Chișinău, where several hundred supporters chanted "Their weapon is money, your weapon is your vote!". The prime minister acknowledged the scare tactics but argued they were justified by the evidence of a coordinated campaign to overturn the government.

The opposition landscape and the diaspora factor

The main challenger to PAS is the Patriotic Bloc, an alliance of the Socialist and Communist parties. Its most recognisable figure, Irina Vlah, the former governor of the autonomous Gagauz region, was barred from the ballot on Friday over allegations of illicit financing, a move opposition parties called proof that the government is rigging the contest. A third bloc, Alternativa, positions itself as pro-European but includes Chișinău's mayor, who is banned from the Schengen zone for unspecified security reasons and is appealing the ruling. In total, more than 20 parties and coalitions are registered, though a 5 per cent threshold will limit parliamentary representation.

The diaspora vote has become decisive. Hundreds of thousands of Moldovans live abroad, mostly in the EU, and their ballots have swung recent elections toward pro-European candidates. In 2024's presidential runoff, Sandu won narrowly after losing the domestic count, carried by overwhelming support from polling stations in Italy, France, Germany and Romania. Both sides are mobilising expatriate voters, but the logistical and financial advantages lie with the incumbent.

Economic pressure and the cost of living

Beyond geopolitics, the campaign plays out against a backdrop of economic stagnation. Since 2022, the surge in energy prices after Russia cut gas supplies has pushed growth to near zero. In Cricova, a wine-producing town south of the capital, women on a square bench summed up the mood. One showed a photograph of her child's tattered schoolbooks: "The politicians have fancy paper to print their election posters and flyers, but there's nothing decent for our kids' schoolbooks." Another, a factory worker earning roughly £100 a month, said the cost of living had soared while wages flatlined. "I don't know who to vote for, they all make promises. Then they do nothing."

That disaffection is the substrate on which Russian interference operates. John Lough of the New Eurasian Strategies Centre in London described the Kremlin's approach as imperial: "For the Russian side, Moldova is seen as a territory where they should rightfully exercise influence… within the borders of the old empire. With very traditional, imperial thinking… they see it as their right to boss Moldova around." A Moscow-friendly government, he added, would be demoralising for Europeans and could provide a firmer toehold for hybrid activity, particularly through the breakaway Transnistria region.

Transnistria: the frozen conflict that could heat up

Transnistria, a sliver of land east of the Dniester river, has been under de facto Russian control since a brief war in the early 1990s. It hosts a Soviet-era ammunition depot at Cobasna, one of the largest in Eastern Europe, and a contingent of Russian troops formally designated as peacekeepers. The region's leadership is economically dependent on Moscow. A government in Chișinău willing to accommodate Russian interests could, in Lough's assessment, "make things more difficult for the Ukrainians" by allowing Transnistria to serve as a logistics or intelligence hub.

Dodon, who keeps three photographs of Vladimir Putin on his office wall alongside pictures with Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron, argues his approach is pragmatic, not ideological. He calls it pro-Moldovan, driven by profit margins not morals. If elected, he would oppose all sanctions on Russia "even if Brussels dictates it" and revert to buying Russian gas, citing Slovakia and Hungary as EU members that continue to do so. Asked about the war in Ukraine, he said both sides were at fault. "We need to have good relations with all. It means we shouldn't be friends with someone against another."

The risk of post-election confrontation

The most volatile variable is how the opposition reacts to the result. Dodon has already declared that if PAS claims a majority, "we will show it's a fix. They can only get a majority by falsification." He promised a wave of street protests and vowed: "We will declare a win and defend it. We won't let them cancel the vote." The irony noted by police is that the only documented efforts to warp Moldova's elections have come from Russia. Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, countered this week that Moldovan authorities "are so afraid of the elections that they are hampering the nomination of candidates, participation in the vote, and observation of the vote."

Cernăuțeanu, whose force is working around the clock, was blunt: "I don't think anyone in Europe has experienced anything like this interference. Ahead of the vote we're working 24/7 to minimise the risks. But we understand very well that Russia will try absolutely all methods to achieve what it wants."