Moldova votes Sunday in tight contest between EU path and Russian influence

Moldova goes to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that President Maia Sandu has called the most important in the country's history. Opinion polls put her pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in a tight race with the Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), an alliance of pro-Russian parties led by the controversial businessman Renato Usatii. The result will determine whether the small state between Ukraine and Romania continues its EU accession bid, targeting membership by 2030, or pivots back toward Moscow's orbit.

Two camps, two futures

On Chisinau's Stefan-cel-Mare Boulevard, campaigners for both sides press leaflets into the hands of passers-by. Cristian, 35, handing out the yellow PAS newspaper, says EU membership will raise wages, bring independence and enable projects such as digitalisation. A few metres away, Vitalie, 50, distributes the BEP's papers for Our Party. He calls the European dream a lie, insisting the EU will not accept Moldova in two, three, four or even ten years. The contrast captures a country split down the middle.

Sandu's government secured EU candidate status in June 2022, months after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The bloc subsequently approved a €1.9 billion package of loans and grants running to 2027, a lifeline for a state where almost one-third of the population lives below the poverty line. The BEP counters that neutrality is Moldova's shield, framing the EU path as a provocation that could invite Russian military action.

Inflation and housing squeeze voters

While geopolitics dominates the rhetoric, the daily conversation in markets and supermarket queues is about prices. Inflation exploded to nearly 29% in 2022 after Russia attacked Ukraine; it has fallen but stood at 7.3% in August, well above the Eurostat average for the euro area. Alina, a 26-year-old project manager, paid 70 lei (€3.50) for a few tomatoes and some bread the day before speaking to reporters. "That makes absolutely no sense," she said.

The cost of housing has surged. A one-room apartment in Chisinau rents for about €500 a month against an average monthly income of €800. "I'm 26 and I'd like to buy an apartment in the future," Alina said. "But how? They are so extremely overpriced at the moment. It's absolutely crazy." Pensioners, especially in rural areas, have been hit hardest; elderly women beg outside supermarkets while very old men and women sell fruit and vegetables on street markets to survive.

War on the doorstep

The Ukrainian border lies 50 kilometres from the capital. Since February 2022, more than 1.3 million people have fled Ukraine into Moldova; roughly 100,000 have stayed, placing a heavy economic burden on a country of 2.5 million. Russian drones regularly fall on Moldovan territory. Michelle, 22, a sales manager, said the war feels very close: "We feel the pressure, not as much now as in the past, but perhaps we have just grown accustomed to it."

The most tangible Russian military presence is in Transnistria, a separatist sliver of land that broke away in 1990 and maintains its own army, currency and government. About 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed there, and the region is economically and militarily dependent on Moscow. Transnistrian authorities have in the past asked to be integrated into the Russian Federation. The BEP's campaign newspaper explicitly warns that continued EU alignment could turn Moldova into a battlefield.

Disinformation and the legitimacy question

Anastasia Nani of the Center for Independent Journalism has tracked a massive Russian influence operation on Moldovan social media. One of the most frequent narratives, she said, is that "NATO and Ukraine want to drag us into war; our men will end up fighting on the front." Another strand seeks to delegitimise the vote itself: "Already the legitimacy of the election is being called into question," Nani said, adding that this aims to undermine trust in the election and the rule of law.

TikTok and television carry back-to-back political ads, while graffiti in Chisinau's centre, "Russians out of Moldova" painted over with "Sandu, Sheep" in red, shows the bitterness spilling into public space. The BEP's slogan, printed on its campaign newspaper, reads: "Neutrality is our shield. The Republic of Moldova must be a bridge between East and West, not a battlefield."

EU money and conditionality

The €1.9 billion EU support package, agreed this year, is conditional on reform progress and alignment with the bloc's acquis. Alina fears the funds will dry up if pro-Russian parties gain a parliamentary majority. Conversely, she worries that a PAS victory will harden Moscow's stance, potentially putting the country in the crosshairs. "Chisinau is small, and Moldova is not particularly big either. You don't need a huge army to take our country," she said.

A divided electorate

No voter interviewed expected a landslide. The PAS hopes to translate its presidential mandate, Sandu won a second term in a 2024 runoff, into a parliamentary majority that can pass the judicial and anti-corruption reforms required for EU accession. The BEP, polling a close second, aims to deny PAS that majority and force a coalition that would stall or reverse the European trajectory. Smaller parties may hold the balance, but the binary framing, EU or Russia, has crowded out policy debate on health, education or the energy sector.