Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
Person
Leader of the National Rally, National Rally
Former prime minister and Renaissance leader bets that a summer spent meeting voters at markets, ports and vineyards can erode Edouard Philippe's lead for the centrist vote ahead of the April 2027 presidential election.
Around 50,000 Moroccan migrants crossed into the Spanish enclave in late July, leaving 88 dead and handing far-right parties across Europe a potent campaign issue ahead of a cluster of national votes in 2027.
French far-right leader announces candidacy hours after court upholds embezzlement conviction, while party president Bardella signals pragmatic shift toward Berlin's centre-right
A French appeals court rules Tuesday on whether the National Rally leader's embezzlement conviction and five-year ban on public office will stand, potentially ending her fourth bid for the Élysée.
Paris appeal court rules Tuesday on whether to uphold a five-year ineligibility sentence that would exclude the National Rally leader from her strongest-ever shot at the Élysée, while her protégé Jordan Bardella waits in the wings.
Social Democrats remain largest party but lose ground to left and right; Meloni suffers referendum defeat in Italy; Le Pen stalls in French cities; Golob survives Slovenia's closest vote.
Viktor Orban hosted Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders and other European nationalist leaders days before the April 12 election, but only 2,000 supporters attended while his party trails the Tisza opposition by a wide margin amid corruption and Russian influence scandals.
With Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella favoured to win next year's presidential election, Berlin, Brussels and Kyiv are accelerating nuclear, budget and enlargement agreements that a National Rally government could unpick.
Messages from 2018 and 2019 show Trump's former strategist asked Jeffrey Epstein to bankroll Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini ahead of European elections, while Italian and French politicians demand transparency.
The National Rally leader faces a month-long hearing in Paris starting Tuesday to overturn a five-year ban from public office imposed after her conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds. A summer verdict will decide whether she or Jordan Bardella leads the party into the 2027 election.
Trust in French institutions has fallen faster than in any other EU country, while Marine Le Pen's legal battle and a fragmented left leave the 2027 contest wide open.
France's National Rally leader tells BBC he shares White House warnings of 'civilisational erasure' but insists his party seeks national sovereignty, not subservience to Washington, as Le Pen's legal battle clouds the 2027 presidential race.
Five prime ministers in 17 months have exposed the structural fragility of a system built for presidential dominance, not parliamentary compromise.
The billionaire's party took 34.5% and 80 seats but needs support from two right-wing fringe parties to govern, while President Pavel signals he will not appoint a cabinet before November.
Sébastien Lecornu becomes France's fourth prime minister in 14 months while Bloquons Tout! protests spread and Russian drones penetrate Polish airspace, raising questions about both domestic stability and European security.
The National Assembly voted 364 to 194 to topple François Bayrou's government, leaving Emmanuel Macron to find a replacement who can survive a fractured parliament and a debt crisis that has pushed borrowing to 114 per cent of GDP.
National Rally leader calculates that forcing new elections serves her party better than letting Macron's camp own an unpopular €43.8 billion austerity package.
Prime minister faces near-certain defeat on 8 September with only 210 government deputies against 353 opposition MPs, leaving France facing its third prime minister in under a year.
Centrist deputies argue the far right's exclusion from the National Assembly Bureau fuels victimhood narratives, but the move would further erode the firewall maintained across Europe.
Marine Le Pen's party shares ideological ground with the US president but polls show French voters, including its own base, see his policies as damaging to France. The party is hedging its bets.
One year after his gamble backfired, the French president again holds the constitutional power to dissolve parliament. Allies say he is tempted, despite public denials.
Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán and allies gathered south of Paris to claim momentum one year after their strongest European Parliament showing, while Le Pen's legal appeal clouds her 2027 presidential prospects.
A Paris court banned the National Rally leader from office for five years with immediate effect, but a complex appeals process could yet allow her to stand in the next presidential election.
Far-right party signals it may withdraw support for minority government, raising prospect of fresh political crisis just four months after Barnier's fall
Paris court finds National Rally leader guilty of misappropriating €3 million in European Parliament funds, imposing immediate ban that blocks her 2027 presidential run.
From Germany to Austria, mainstream conservatives are adopting hardline immigration platforms to stem voter losses, but evidence shows the strategy only strengthens the radical right.
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