Babiš begins coalition talks after ANO wins Czech election without majority

Andrej Babiš met President Petr Pavel on Sunday and opened talks with the leaders of two right-wing fringe parties, the first steps in what is likely to be a protracted effort to turn a plurality into a working government. His ANO movement finished first in the parliamentary election held on Friday and Saturday with 34.5% of the vote, giving it a provisional 80 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies. The centre-right Spolu coalition of outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala came second with 23.4%. Neither bloc commands the 101 seats required for an absolute majority.

The arithmetic of a minority government

Babiš has said he wants a single-party minority cabinet backed by a confidence-and-supply arrangement rather than a formal coalition. That means securing at least 21 additional votes from elsewhere in the chamber. The only plausible partners are Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), which won 7.8% and 18 seats, and the Motorists party, which took 5.9% and 13 seats. Together they would bring ANO to 111 seats, a comfortable margin. But both potential partners have indicated they may prefer a binding coalition agreement, and the SPD's result was far below the 13% that pre-election polls had suggested, reducing its bargaining power.

"We will lead talks with the SPD and the Motorists, and seek a single-party government led by ANO," Babiš told reporters on Sunday. The billionaire, whose net worth is estimated at $3.9bn, campaigned on faster growth, higher wages and pensions, lower taxes, opposition to the EU migration pact and Green Deal, and an end to the Czech artillery-shell initiative for Ukraine in favour of channelling support through EU structures.

President Pavel's conditions and timeline

Pavel, who defeated Babiš in the 2023 presidential election, made clear after their Sunday meeting that he would not appoint a new government before November at the earliest. He said he would insist on "a pro-western direction" for the country and "the preservation of all the institutions of a democratic state". Before the vote Pavel stated he would not appoint any minister who advocated Czech withdrawal from the EU or NATO. He also disclosed that he was seeking legal advice on a possible conflict of interest arising from Babiš's extensive business holdings, which include the Agrofert conglomerate. Babiš has promised to resolve the issue, but the president retains the constitutional right to reject a prime ministerial nominee if he considers the solution inadequate.

The SPD and Motorists: overlapping but distinct demands

The SPD, led by Tomio Okamura, shares ANO's opposition to EU climate and migration policies but goes further: its platform includes a "Czexit" referendum on EU membership and withdrawal from NATO. Babiš has rejected both positions outright, insisting ANO is "pro-European, and pro-NATO". The Motorists party, formed around opposition to traffic regulations and fuel taxes, is less ideologically rigid but also opposes the EU Green Deal. Both parties have said they are open to talks, yet it remains unclear whether either will accept a loose confidence-and-supply deal or demand ministerial posts and policy concessions that could fracture the arrangement.

Analysts noted that the SPD's 7.8% result, a drop from its 2021 score of 9.6%, suggests voter fatigue with its most radical rhetoric. That weakens Okamura's hand in negotiations, but it also makes the party less predictable: a smaller caucus may feel it has less to lose by pressing maximalist demands.

European reactions reveal the ambiguity of Babiš's alignment

Viktor Orbán, Hungary's prime minister and the EU's most prominent disruptor, posted on social media that "truth has prevailed". Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Rally, declared that "patriotic parties" were being "called to power … all over Europe". Both lead parties in the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, to which ANO also belongs. Babiš has called himself an admirer of Orbán. Yet analysts in Prague and Brussels argue that his politics are transactional rather than ideological. The Czech Republic is a net beneficiary of the EU budget, receiving roughly €23bn more than it contributed over the 2021-2027 programming period, and Agrofert's agribusiness and chemical operations benefit directly from single-market access and agricultural subsidies.

"Babiš is a businessman first," said a senior EU official who follows Central European politics. "He will make noise about migration and the Green Deal to keep his base happy, but he will not risk the structural funds or the regulatory framework that underpin his companies' profitability." That calculation mirrors the trajectory of other Central European leaders who campaigned against Brussels but governed within its constraints.

Domestic institutions as a brake on radical change

Even if Babiš secures a parliamentary majority, the Czech Senate, the upper house, where ANO does not hold a majority, can veto any proposed electoral law or constitutional amendment and must approve judges appointed to the Constitutional Court. The outgoing Spolu coalition retains influence there. The Constitutional Court itself has struck down several ANO initiatives during Babiš's previous premiership (2017-2021), including elements of a controversial justice reform. The Supreme Audit Office and the National Bank also operate independently. These institutions collectively form a dense thicket of checks that would complicate any attempt to dismantle liberal-democratic safeguards.

The conflict-of-interest question

Babiš's Agrofert group, placed in trust funds in 2017 to comply with a 2016 conflict-of-interest law, remains a live issue. The European Commission concluded in 2021 that Babiš still controlled the trust structures and that EU subsidies paid to Agrofert constituted a breach of the EU's financial regulation. The Commission asked the Czech authorities to recover the funds; the Czech government has not yet done so. Pavel's request for legal advice on the matter signals that the presidency may press for a stricter separation than Babiš offered during his first term. If the president rejects Babiš's proposed resolution, the billionaire would have to either divest more thoroughly or face a constitutional standoff.

What happens next