Merz faces chancellor swap talk as AfD surges before eastern elections
Conservative politicians discuss replacing Friedrich Merz after one year as AfD leads national polls and threatens to win state power for the first time in September.
Monday, 17 August 2026Europe · Analysis
Independent · Brussels & Berlin
Person
Minister-President of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union, CSU
Conservative politicians discuss replacing Friedrich Merz after one year as AfD leads national polls and threatens to win state power for the first time in September.
The February 23 vote follows the collapse of Olaf Scholz's traffic light government. Polls point to a CDU-led administration, but the shape of the next coalition depends on whether smaller parties clear the five percent threshold.
Conservatives lead polls at 30 percent but AfD's 20 percent blocks simple majority, forcing CDU/CSU into complex negotiations with SPD or Greens as migration policy fractures traditional alliances.
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