Merz faces chancellor swap talk as AfD surges before eastern elections

Germany's reputation for political stability is being tested this summer as conservative politicians openly discuss whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz should be replaced before the end of his first year in office. The trigger is a cluster of state elections in eastern Germany next month where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a realistic chance of leading a state government for the first time since the Second World War.

The summer crisis in the Chancellery

Merz returned from his summer break insisting the turbulence would pass. "I'm assuming that things will have calmed down a bit by September," he told reporters last week after a cabinet reshuffle prompted public resignations and private recriminations. His optimism contrasts with the mood inside the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), where a growing number of deputies and officials are debating a Kanzlertausch, a chancellor swap, as a defensive measure against electoral collapse in the east.

The discussion is remarkable by German standards. Since 1949 only three sitting chancellors have been succeeded by a politician from their own camp: Konrad Adenauer made way for Ludwig Erhard in 1963, Erhard's coalition collapsed in 1966, and Willy Brandt resigned over an espionage scandal in 1974. Each transition occurred under distinct circumstances, age, coalition failure, personal scandal. The current scenario would be driven primarily by polling anxiety and the rise of a party that every other mainstream force has vowed to exclude from power.

Eastern elections and the AfD surge

The immediate catalyst is the electoral calendar. On 6 September Saxony-Anhalt votes, followed by Mecklenburg, Western Pomerania and Berlin on 20 September. Polls suggest the AfD could win an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt and finish first in the other two states. Such results would shatter the firewall that has kept the far right out of government at every level since the party's founding in 2013.

The stakes extend beyond the state capitals. CDU politicians in eastern Germany have privately warned that local representatives might tolerate or support an AfD-led administration after the votes, breaking Merz's repeated pledge never to cooperate with the far right. One senior conservative described the internal debate as "speculative for now" but said the aftermath of the eastern elections would be "decisive" for the chancellor's future.

At national level the shift is already visible. Destatis tracks the broader demographic and economic trends that have fuelled eastern disaffection, but the political expression is clear: POLITICO's Poll of Polls places the AfD at 28 percent nationally, seven points clear of the CDU/CSU bloc on 21 percent. The AfD is now the single most popular party in Germany.

The mechanics of a Kanzlertausch

If Merz were to step aside voluntarily, his successor would be elected by a majority vote in the Bundestag, the least disruptive route. Should he refuse, opponents would need a constructive vote of no confidence under Article 67 of the Basic Law, which requires simultaneously electing a replacement. That procedure has succeeded only once, in 1982 when Helmut Kohl replaced Helmut Schmidt. Attempting it now would risk fracturing the governing coalition of CDU, CSU and Social Democrats (SPD), potentially triggering a snap election.

Hendrik Wüst, the 49-year-old minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia, has emerged in media speculation as the leading candidate. Wüst has not commented publicly on the chatter. Der Spiegel's latest cover story, headlined "Palace Revolt", captured the intensity of the behind-the-scenes manoeuvring. Conservative sources confirmed the discussions to reporters on condition of anonymity, citing declining trust in Merz's statesmanship and doubts about his ability to hold the party together if the AfD enters government in the east.

Söder's defence and the risks of removal

The most powerful voice backing Merz remains Markus Söder, the Bavarian minister-president and leader of the CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). In an interview with public broadcaster ARD over the weekend, Söder was unequivocal: "I am firmly convinced that Friedrich Merz will remain chancellor." He warned that a swap would throw the conservatives into "complete disarray" and could precipitate new elections, an outcome he argued would benefit only the AfD. "Anyone who wants new elections now... is only promoting one thing: bringing radicals to power."

Söder's intervention carries weight. The CSU controls the Bavarian state government and provides the conservative bloc's southern anchor. His calculation is straightforward: the CDU/CSU's polling deficit is structural, not personal, and a leadership crisis would confirm the impression of a centre-right unable to govern. Other senior figures have echoed the call for discipline, but none with Söder's authority.

Polling collapse and economic discontent

Merz's personal ratings explain the nervousness. The latest ARD-DeutschlandTrend survey, conducted in July, found only 13 percent of Germans satisfied with his performance, the lowest figure for any incumbent chancellor since the poll began nearly 30 years ago. The discontent is rooted in two areas: the perception that the government has failed to revive Germany's stagnating economy, and scepticism toward pension and healthcare reforms that voters expect will cost them money.

Germany's economy contracted in 2023 and flatlined in 2024, with Bundesbank projections pointing to modest growth at best through 2026. Industrial production remains below pre-pandemic levels. Merz campaigned on a platform of economic renewal, but the coalition's first budget was dominated by debt-brake negotiations and the fallout from a constitutional court ruling that blew a hole in climate and transformation funding. The reform agenda, raising the retirement age, adjusting health contributions, has been drafted but not sold.

Kai Arzheimer, a political scientist at the University of Mainz, places the turbulence in a longer trajectory. "Compared with the 1970s and 1980s, Germany has experienced relatively little political stability for quite some time now," he said. "However, by the standards of what has become the norm in many other European countries, one could also say that Germany has simply arrived where others have been for a long time." He doubts the CDU has the appetite for a high-stakes gamble: "I can't imagine many people within the conservative camp saying: 'This is the solution, and we're willing to take any risk in the hope that we might then do better in the polls.' That would be a completely crazy idea."

What happens in September

The next six weeks will decide whether the Kanzlertausch remains a parliamentary parlor game or becomes a constitutional event. If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt and performs strongly elsewhere, the pressure on Merz will become acute. The CDU's eastern leaders will face immediate questions about whether they will tolerate AfD participation in government, a decision that could split the party along regional lines.