AfD nears historic state election victory as German mainstream parties struggle

Early September elections in Saxony-Anhalt could deliver something Germany has not seen since the second world war: a state government led by the far right. Polling puts the Alternative für Deutschland above 40 per cent in the eastern state, enough seats to govern without coalition partners. The traditional firewall keeping mainstream parties from cooperating with the AfD may no longer hold.

This is not a marginal shift. Support for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has doubled since the last state election in 2021. Meanwhile, backing for the Christian Democratic Union, the closest challenger, has tumbled by almost 15 percentage points. The numbers tell a story of collapse among established parties and consolidation behind a movement that security services have classified as a threat to democracy.

National polling suggests this extends beyond one state. More than one in four German voters now back the AfD, making it the largest party in several surveys. The implications stretch across education policy, policing powers, and cultural institutions that fall under state jurisdiction in Germany's federal system.

What an AfD government would mean

The AfD manifesto for Saxony-Anhalt contains proposals that would test Germany's constitutional order and its obligations under European law. The party has pledged to segregate refugee children into separate schools, a measure that would violate EU anti-discrimination directives. A nationalist curriculum would shift educational focus away from the Nazi period, rewriting how history is taught in classrooms.

Social policy proposals champion what the party calls the normal family while opposing what it terms sexual deviations and non-reproductive lifestyles. These positions go beyond conservative politics into territory that conflicts with fundamental rights protections enshrined in both German law and European treaties.

State governments in Germany control education, policing, and cultural policy. An AfD administration in Saxony-Anhalt would exercise substantial powers in these areas immediately. The party has stated it intends to fully exploit these competences, suggesting administrative changes could begin within weeks of taking office.

Merz's failed promise

Friedrich Merz, now Chancellor, campaigned to lead the CDU in 2018 with a pledge to halve the AfD vote. The opposite has occurred. Support for the far right has doubled in key states while Merz's own popularity ratings sit at record lows for any chancellor. His coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, fares equally poorly in polling.

The government's response to economic pressures has focused on tax cuts, welfare reform, and raising the retirement age. These measures address fiscal concerns but do little for regions suffering industrial decline. The approach assumes voters will reward economic orthodoxy even as their communities lose jobs and identity.

Some within the CDU have suggested dropping the taboo on cooperation with the AfD. The argument runs that exposing the party to governing realities would reveal the emptiness of populist promises. This strategy carries obvious risks, particularly for minorities who would face the immediate consequences of AfD policy experiments.

Eastern Germany's economic divergence

Support for the far right concentrates in ailing industrial regions that once provided pride, identity, and prosperity. Eastern German states have not recovered economically from reunification in ways their populations expected. Manufacturing jobs disappeared, younger workers migrated west, and public investment lagged behind western counterparts.

The current economic environment compounds these structural problems. Chinese competition in manufacturing sectors hits German exports hard, while US protectionism limits market access. Germany's largest economy suffers from this double pressure, with eastern states bearing disproportionate costs as industries contract or relocate.

Eurostat data shows industrial production across the EU has struggled since 2023, but German manufacturing has underperformed regional peers. Eurostat's industrial production figures reveal the scale of the challenge facing Berlin. Voters in affected regions see little benefit from national economic growth when their local economies shrink.

The firewall question

Mainstream politicians have refused to form coalitions with the AfD since its founding. This firewall has kept the party out of executive power despite strong electoral showings. The principle rests on the assessment that the AfD represents an extreme movement incompatible with democratic governance.

If the AfD wins enough seats to govern alone in Saxony-Anhalt, the firewall becomes irrelevant for that state. The party would not need coalition partners. This changes the calculation for other states where the AfD falls short of a majority but could become a necessary partner for forming any government.

The federal government cannot dissolve a state parliament or remove a democratically elected state government. Constitutional protections for Germany's federal structure mean Saxony-Anhalt voters decide their administration. Berlin can only respond through legal challenges if state policies violate federal or European law.

What mainstream parties must address

Attempts to ape the far right's draconian stance on immigration have not worked. Voters who might consider the AfD do not switch to mainstream parties offering slightly tougher rhetoric on the same issues. The underlying grievances extend beyond immigration to economic security, cultural identity, and distrust of political elites.

A different economic approach is needed to combat the AfD's rise. This means investment in regions left behind, not just national growth figures. It requires addressing why communities feel abandoned by the political class regardless of which party holds power in Berlin.

The reckoning extends beyond Saxony-Anhalt. Several eastern states hold elections in coming months. If the AfD performs similarly elsewhere, the pressure on mainstream parties to reconsider their strategy will intensify. The question is whether they can develop credible alternatives before more states fall.