For the first time in the Federal Republic's history, a far-right politician could occupy a state premiership. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged from the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election in a position to claim the Minister-President's office, a threshold no party classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence has crossed at state level in post-war Germany.
The result is, by the assessment of political scientist Petra Dobner, a dramatic historical moment. Nearly half the state's voters were willing to entrust government responsibility to a party that Germany's domestic intelligence service has designated as confirmed right-wing extremist. Whether the AfD can actually form a government depends on coalition mathematics and the willingness of other parties to provide or withhold support.
A result without precedent
Across eight previous Landtag elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) finished first in all but one, the exception being 1998. The AfD's performance shatters that pattern entirely. The party has not merely won a large share; it has reached a level where, for the first time in any German state, the question of an AfD-led government is a practical possibility rather than a theoretical projection.
Dobner, speaking to ARD's capital studio, was unambiguous about the significance. Asked whether the label "historic" applied, she said: "Yes, I would say it is a dramatic historical moment. A state has been able to envisage a confirmed right-wing extremist party as a governing party with almost half of its voters." She added that the consequences for how the AfD might change the state remain to be seen.
Why Saxony-Anhalt was receptive
The question of why this breakthrough happened in Saxony-Anhalt, specifically, has two layers. The first is structural. Dobner described the state as having high voter volatility, meaning a large share of the electorate does not have fixed party loyalties and is willing to shift between elections. That volatility created an opening.
The second is strategic. The AfD, in Dobner's analysis, operates with "few facts and much emotion." In a state where frustration runs deep, not only about the economy but about a broader sense of political neglect, that approach found a receptive audience. Dobner was blunt: many voters are "prepared to believe something that will not be realised." The gap between what the AfD promises and what it can deliver, particularly on infrastructure where funding is absent, will become apparent once the party has to govern rather than oppose.
The East-West fracture that never healed
Dobner traced the AfD's success to divisions that predate reunification by decades. The discrepancy between East and West, she argued, was not merely a question of two different states separated by an iron curtain. It produced fundamentally different life realities: West Germans could travel; East Germans could not. One society was subordinate to the other in political and cultural discourse.
The assumption that these differences would simply vanish on reunification day in 1990 was, in her view, a mistake. Instead, distinct mentalities persisted and have now resurfaced, notably among younger eastern Germans who have formed what Dobner called a "new East German feeling." She finds this troubling, because the traditions being revived often bear little relation to present realities.
The AfD has been adept at cultivating this sentiment. Dobner pointed to the party's framing of specifically "East German interests," whether through figures such as the motorcycle brand Simson as a cultural symbol or through AfD co-leader Chrupalla accusing CDU leader Friedrich Merz of still not understanding eastern Germans. That narrative, she suggested, has gained traction precisely because it connects to a genuine sense of being overlooked, even if the remedies the AfD offers are implausible.
BSW's debut and a fragmented landscape
The election also marked the first time the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) contested a Landtag vote in Saxony-Anhalt. The party's performance came despite extraordinary internal disarray: just days before the vote, the BSW's Thuringia Landtag faction nearly unanimously left the party, refusing to work with Wagenknecht any longer.
Dobner was not surprised by the BSW's showing, noting that the party is heterogeneous and that its state-level branches operate with considerable independence from the federal party. The BSW's appeal, she suggested, draws on desires for peace and, among some voters, the hope of restoring Russian gas supplies, positions that find fertile ground in parts of eastern Germany. The party's entry into the state parliament adds yet another force to an already fragmented landscape, making coalition formation more complex.
A state vote with federal echoes
Six in ten voters told the pollster Infratest dimap that their vote was also meant as a message to Berlin. That is not unusual in German state elections, where voters routinely use Landtag ballots to signal displeasure with federal politics. But the scale matters.
Dobner was careful to draw a line between what the result means for Saxony-Anhalt and what it might portend nationally. The AfD has encouraged the interpretation that its victory carries immediate federal implications, and the party's election programme makes claims to competencies that extend well beyond state-level authority. Dobner's response was direct: regardless of how voters intended their ballots, the result will have to be dealt with in Saxony-Anhalt first, and its consequences will play out there. Whether it translates into a broader shift at federal level remains an open question, even as the AfD currently leads the CDU in national polling.
What an AfD-led government would actually do
Dobner expects considerable pressure on schools and cultural institutions in the weeks and months ahead. The AfD's 100-day programme, she noted, is heavily symbolic, and symbolism will be the first arena where the party seeks to make its mark. The harder question is whether it can deliver on promises to improve infrastructure and public services. Those commitments, Dobner observed, come without the funding required to fulfil them.
The coming weeks will determine whether the AfD can secure enough support in the Landtag to elect a Minister-President and form a government. That process, rather than the election night result itself, will decide whether Saxony-Anhalt becomes the first German state governed by a far-right party, or whether other parties close ranks to keep the AfD in opposition despite its vote share.
People mentioned
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Petra Dobner
Organisations
Alternative for Germany (AfD) · Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)
