The Alternative für Deutschland took 44 per cent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, the strongest result for a far-right party in a German state election since the Nazi era. The margin was large enough to make conventional coalition-building against the AfD look near-impossible, and uncomfortable enough for Chancellor Friedrich Merz that his hold on the chancellery after 16 months is now openly questioned.
The coalition arithmetic
The AfD fell short of an absolute majority, meaning its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, cannot govern alone. Siegmund had stated before the vote that he would only stand for the premiership with a clear majority. He now faces the choice of seeking partners, accepting tolerance from outside a coalition, or pushing for a fresh election, which would require a two-thirds majority in the state legislature that the AfD does not command.
The BSW, a small "left-conservative" populist party that narrowly cleared the 5 per cent threshold, has signalled it might offer tacit cooperation. All other parties have ruled out supporting an AfD-led government. Sven Schulze, the incumbent CDU state premier, conceded that his party no longer had a mandate to try to assemble an alternative coalition.
Why voters turned away from the mainstream
Saxony-Anhalt is Germany's poorest state, and exit polls suggested that economic grievances drove voters more than the immigration issue that has been the AfD's signature cause. Energy prices, pushed higher by inflation and the Iran war, have bitten hard. Merz's broken promises to revive the economy and restore fiscal discipline featured prominently in voters' reasoning. The result reads less as a surge of ideological conviction than as a verdict on a government that failed to deliver on its central promises.
The AfD's gains are no longer confined to the former east. Earlier this year the party made strong showings in two western state elections, driven by fears over deindustrialisation. But Saxony-Anhalt, where living standards lag and trust in Berlin is thin, remains particularly fertile ground. The 44 per cent figure exceeds the AfD's current national polling, which stands at 28 per cent, and surpasses the target Alice Weidel, the party's co-leader, set for the next general election: 40 per cent.
The firewall under strain
The "firewall" policy, under which mainstream parties refuse to govern with or tolerate the AfD, has held since the party entered state parliaments a decade ago. Sunday's vote tests it more severely than any previous result. When the AfD won in neighbouring Thuringia in 2024, its margin was smaller, and the remaining parties managed to cobble together an ideologically awkward cross-spectrum coalition. The Saxony-Anhalt margin makes that workaround far harder to repeat.
Some CDU figures in Saxony-Anhalt had already questioned the firewall before the vote. Siegmund said he would spend the coming weeks with "an outstretched hand", testing whether that resistance holds. If no coalition can be formed and no other combination commands a majority, the state faces either a minority AfD government or a fresh election.
Merz on the defensive
Merz, visibly shaken, said he was "deeply shocked" by the result. The chancellor insisted that planned social welfare reforms were necessary and vowed to press ahead "in the interest of our children and grandchildren". His junior coalition partner, the SPD, took a different line: on Monday it signalled a willingness to water down the changes to Germany's costly social welfare system in order to placate disgruntled voters. The disagreement exposes the strain inside the right-left coalition, which was already fragile.
The Saxony-Anhalt result lays bare the degree to which the government has lost the confidence of voters who expected economic competence from a chancellor who made fiscal discipline his calling card. According to Destatis, the federal statistics office, the state has long lagged behind western Germany on income and employment. Merz's promise to fix what ails the German economy has resonated least in the places that need it most.
Two more state elections in September
Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania go to the polls on 20 September. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD currently holds a narrow lead over the SPD. In Berlin, the CDU, the far-left Linke and the AfD are competing for first place. Even a CDU win in the capital would probably leave the party struggling to form a coherent coalition, dealing Merz another blow that could further destabilise his government.
People mentioned
Organisations
Alternative für Deutschland · Christian Democratic Union · Social Democratic Party · BSW
