Chega becomes Portugal's main opposition with 60 seats

Portugal's anti-immigration Chega party has been confirmed as the second-largest force in the National Assembly, securing 60 seats and the right to lead the parliamentary opposition. The result, finalised on Wednesday after overseas ballots were counted, gives the party two seats more than the Socialist Party and marks the first time since the return of democracy that neither the centre-right nor the centre-left will head the opposition.

The centre-right Democratic Alliance, led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), finished first with 88 seats, an increase of two after the overseas count, but remains well short of the 116 required for an absolute majority. Incoming prime minister Luis Montenegro now prepares to lead a minority government almost identical to the one that collapsed in March after barely ten months in office.

A party built on instability

Chega's ascent has been rapid. The party contested its first election in 2019, winning a single seat. In January 2022 it took 12. In March 2024 it jumped to 50. Now, 60. Each advance has coincided with a failure of the traditional parties to govern effectively. Portugal has held three general elections in 34 months, a pace of instability more common in the First Republic than in the democratic era.

The party's name means "Enough" and its slogan this campaign was "Save Portugal". Its platform centres on immigration restriction, tougher sentencing, and a nationalist narrative that accuses the established parties of betraying ordinary Portuguese. Andre Ventura, a former television commentator and municipal councillor in Loures, has proved adept at channeling frustration with a political class that has rotated between the PSD and the Socialists (PS) for nearly five decades.

The numbers behind the headline

The final tally gives the Democratic Alliance 88 seats, Chega 60, the Socialist Party 58, the Liberal Initiative 8, the Left Bloc 5, the Communist-Green alliance (CDU) 4, Livre 4, and People-Animals-Nature (PAN) 1. Two seats are allocated to the Europe constituency and two to the Outside Europe constituency, both of which voted on 18 May but were only counted on 28 May in Lisbon. Those four overseas seats split evenly: two for the Alliance, two for Chega.

Turnout was 58.2 percent, up slightly from 51.4 percent in March 2024 but below the 60 percent threshold that might have given the larger parties a stronger mandate. The Socialist Party, which governed from 2015 to 2024 under Antonio Costa and then briefly under Pedro Nuno Santos, lost ground in almost every district. Its 58 seats represent a drop of 20 from the 2022 election and its worst result since 1987.

Montenegro's narrow path

Luis Montenegro, 51, a corporate lawyer and PSD leader since 2022, now faces the same arithmetic that defeated his predecessor. The Democratic Alliance cannot pass legislation without support from either Chega or the Socialists. The Socialists have ruled out any deal with the right. Chega has demanded policy concessions, particularly on immigration and judicial reform, in exchange for parliamentary tolerance.

In March, Montenegro's first government fell when he refused to accept a parliamentary inquiry into his family's business consultancy, Spinumviva. The PSD survived a confidence vote but only because Chega abstained. That abstention came with an understanding, never formalised, that the government would toughen immigration rules. It did not. The early election was the consequence.

This time, Montenegro has signalled a willingness to negotiate case by case. He has ruled out a formal coalition with Chega, mindful of the "cordon sanitaire" that European mainstream parties maintain against the far right. But he also knows that governing against Chega's 60 votes will require either Socialist abstention, unlikely after a campaign in which the PS painted the Alliance as Chega's enabler, or a series of ad hoc agreements that will look like coalition by another name.

The European context

Chega's breakthrough is not an outlier. In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally won 142 seats in the 2024 legislative election and leads polling for the 2027 presidential race. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy has led a coalition government since October 2022. In Germany, Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the largest opposition force in three eastern state elections in September 2024 and polls second nationally. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom leads a coalition after the November 2023 election.

What distinguishes Portugal is the speed of the transition. The party did not exist six years ago. Its leader was a fringe figure on a regional council. The traditional parties' inability to form lasting governments, Costa's Socialists governed with a majority from 2022 to 2024 but collapsed over a corruption investigation; Montenegro's Alliance has now failed twice, created a vacuum that Chega filled with a simple message: the system is broken, only we will fix it.

The European Parliament provides a further gauge. In the June 2024 European elections, Chega won two of Portugal's 21 seats, up from zero in 2019. The party sits in the Identity and Democracy group, alongside the National Rally, the League, and the AfD. That grouping gives Ventura a continental platform and access to resources that a purely national party would lack. European Parliament records show the ID group now holds 58 seats, making it the sixth-largest in the hemicycle.

Immigration as the fault line

Immigration has been the single most effective issue for Chega. Portugal's foreign-born population has doubled since 2015, reaching roughly 1.1 million in 2024, about 10 percent of the 10.6 million total. The increase reflects labour shortages in agriculture, construction, tourism and healthcare, sectors where Portuguese workers are scarce. But the speed of change, concentrated in the Lisbon metropolitan area and the Algarve, has outpaced integration capacity. Housing pressure, school enrollment strains, and visible street populations of undocumented migrants have fed a narrative of loss of control.

The previous Socialist government regularised thousands of undocumented workers through exceptional measures in 2022 and 2023, arguing that the economy needed them. Chega denounced these as amnesties that rewarded illegality. The Democratic Alliance campaigned on stricter border controls and faster deportations but stopped short of Chega's demand for a numerical cap and the suspension of family reunification. That distinction mattered less to voters than the perception that only Chega was willing to say "enough".

The Socialist dilemma

For the Socialist Party, the result is an existential shock. Finishing third, behind a party that did not exist a decade ago, strips the PS of its claim to be the natural alternative to the right. Pedro Nuno Santos, who led the campaign, has not resigned but faces a leadership contest before the party's next congress. The PS bench is thin: Costa's departure removed the only figure with national authority, and the party's regional barons are divided between those who want a sharp left turn and those who blame the left alliance for the defeat.

The Socialists also confront a strategic trap. If they abstain to let Montenegro govern, they legitimise a right-wing minority. If they vote with Chega to bring the government down, they align with the far right. If they force a fourth election, they risk further erosion. The party's 58 seats are its fewest since the 1987 landslide that gave Anibal Cavaco Silva's PSD a historic majority. Then, the PS had 60 seats. Now, Chega has that number.

What the opposition leader can do

Leading the opposition in Portugal carries formal powers. The leader of the largest opposition party chairs the parliamentary committee that scrutinises intelligence services, nominates two members of the Council of State (the presidential advisory body), and controls the agenda for one monthly plenary debate. Chega will also receive increased public funding, roughly €1.2 million annually, and guaranteed speaking time proportional to its seat count.

Ventura has already used the platform. In his victory statement, he declared that "the bipartidarismo is over" and demanded a referendum on immigration policy. He also called for the direct election of the prime minister, a constitutional change that would presidentialise the system and likely benefit a polarising figure with high name recognition. The PSD and PS have historically resisted such reforms, which would diminish party control over candidate selection.