PiS split reshapes Polish right but Tusk's re-election path remains uncertain

The fracture of Poland's dominant right-wing force was meant to be the moment Donald Tusk's centrist government could breathe easier. Instead, the departure of former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki from Law and Justice (PiS) with 40 deputies has introduced a new layer of unpredictability into a political landscape that was already shifting beneath the prime minister's feet.

A split that changes the arithmetic

PiS governed Poland from 2015 until 2023, alternating power with Tusk's Civic Coalition for more than two decades. The party's formal rupture last month left it with 147 seats in the 460-member Sejm, while Morawiecki's new Development Plus party holds 40. On paper, the opposition right is weaker. Yet the combined polling of all right-of-centre formations, PiS at 21%, Confederation at 14%, Confederation of the Polish Crown at 11%, and Morawiecki's nascent party still untested, could still yield a parliamentary majority if they coalesce after the 2027 election.

Tusk's Civic Coalition leads the POLITICO Poll of Polls with 32% support. That advantage, however, rests on a fragile foundation. Three of the four junior partners in his governing coalition are polling near or below the 5% threshold required to enter parliament. If they fall out, Tusk loses his majority even if his own party's vote holds.

Morawiecki's gamble: moderation without Tusk

Morawiecki's break was not a quiet disagreement. In a televised interview on Rymanowski Live this week, he admitted that he had opposed the tightening of Poland's abortion law, a move that triggered mass protests and a durable drop in PiS support among women. "Although I oppose abortion, I believed the change would lead to catastrophe, a polling collapse. Unfortunately, I was right," he said. His new party pitches itself as a moderate, economically focused alternative, explicitly rejecting the ideological battles that defined the Kaczyński era.

Yet Morawiecki has also ruled out any future cooperation with Tusk. That refusal limits the tactical options for both men. For Tusk, it removes a potential coalition partner who might have been persuaded to support a centrist government. For Morawiecki, it means Development Plus must either build a right-wing majority without PiS or accept permanent opposition.

Kaczyński's retaliation and the far-right vacuum

Jarosław Kaczyński responded with characteristic bluntness. In a post on X, he questioned Morawiecki's loyalty and mental state: "Mateusz Morawiecki's latest statements show clearly that his enemy is not Tusk, but me and Law and Justice. I have the impression that the prime minister is in some peculiar state. God willing, I am wrong." A follow-up post denounced "attacks based on lies, manipulation, and insinuations" from former allies. The public acrimony reinforces the perception that the right's split is personal as much as strategic.

Into that vacuum step two far-right formations. Confederation, a libertarian-nationalist grouping, polls at 14%. The explicitly antisemitic Confederation of the Polish Crown sits at 11%. Their leaders are attacking each other as much as PiS. Krzysztof Bosak, a Confederation leader, declared on radio that "the next prime minister should not be from PiS." A spokesperson for the Crown party, Wojciech Machulski, dismissed Morawiecki as a "puppet" but conceded that "Kaczyński is no longer the leader of the right; he no longer dominates the right."

Why the split may not help Tusk

Political scientists caution against assuming the government benefits automatically. Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene of the University of Warsaw argues that separate campaigns allow the right to fish in different ponds: PiS retains its core socially conservative base, Morawiecki targets economically liberal conservatives, and the far-right parties mobilise anti-establishment voters. "What is more, Morawiecki could attract more conservative voters from those parties," she added. The net effect could be a higher combined right-wing vote than a single PiS list would achieve.

Meanwhile, Tusk's coalition is showing strain. Anna Siewierska-Chmaj of the University of Rzeszów notes that many voters are frustrated with the government's "lackluster results", a perception partly shaped by President Karol Nawrocki's use of the veto. The PiS-aligned president has blocked significant legislative initiatives, from judicial reforms to media law changes. "The old polarization strategy of 'us versus PiS' will no longer suffice," Siewierska-Chmaj said. Tusk's team must articulate a positive record over the summer recess or risk losing the centre-ground voters who delivered his 2023 victory.

The demographic card

Morawiecki's manifesto, released this week, places Poland's plummeting birth rate at centre stage. "A right-wing party without a clear identity-based agenda will not be a right-wing party. But a right-wing party without a development agenda and without the ability to implement change will never come to power," it reads. The strategy signals an attempt to reclaim the policy initiative on an issue that crosses traditional divides. Whether a party founded by a former prime minister associated with eight years of PiS rule can credibly position itself as the agent of change remains the central question of his campaign.

Tusk's summer homework

For the prime minister, the immediate task is coalition maintenance. The Greens, the Left, and Poland 2050, three of his four junior partners, each hover around the electoral threshold. Their survival depends on visible achievements they can claim as their own. Tusk's advisers acknowledge privately that the government's communication has been reactive, defined by what it opposes rather than what it builds. The summer break offers a narrow window to reset that narrative before the autumn budget session, where the coalition's cohesion will face its next stress test.